Amazon (amzn) Stock Price Prediction In 2030: Bull, Bear & Baselineline Forecasts

Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) has been one of the stock market’s biggest success stories ever.  The company had its IPO in May 1997 and traded for an astonishingly low-split adjusted price of just 7 cents per share.

Since then, the stock has gained over 236,000% as it has grown into the lynchpin of e-commerce. Since its inception, Amazon has become a mainstay in the Magnificent Seven and now commands the fourth largest market cap of any publicly traded company.

However, for investors, the only thing that matters now is what the stock does from this point forward. Let’s crunch the numbers on a 2030 price prediction for Amazon. Of course, no one has a crystal ball. But based on the macroeconomic environment, industry trends, Amazon’s growth metrics and other factors such as price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios, 24/7 Wall Street is able to make cases for bulls, bears and a baseline.

Amazon’s Performance Over the Last Decade

From 2014 to 2024, shares of Amazon surged by more than 1,025%, from $19.94 to $223.75. A considerable amount of that gain came between March 2020 — and unsurprisingly the arrival of the COVID-19 pandemic — and last year. From March 13, 2020, through the end of December 2024, AMZN climbed from $89.25 per share to $134.5, good for a gain of 150.70%, as the company became the focal point of sourcing materials during lockdowns.

Over the past decade, revenue increased from $89 billion to $638 billion, good for an astounding increase of more than 616%. At the same time, net income (aka profit) grew from -$0.241 billion to $59.2 billion, which translates to an incredible gain of 24,664.3%.

The ride up wasn’t always smooth, though. All those COVID-19 era sales being “pulled forward” led to challenges in 2022 and the company swung to a surprise loss. As Amazon embarks into the back half of the decade, a few different key areas will determine its performance.

3 Key Drivers of Amazon’s Stock Performance Through 2030

1. E-Commerce Success: While the pandemic resulted in record sales for Amazon, it also led to many competitors investing heavily to compete with the online retail giant. While e-commerce is still just 15% of retail sales, the company accounted for 40% of all U.S. e-commerce sales in 2023. With few companies capable of disrupting their market share, Amazon is likely to continue to dominate.
2. Amazon Web Services: Amazon Web Services is the world’s largest cloud provider. Additionally, it is Amazon’s most profitable business segment. However, the unit isn’t growing as fast as competing cloud services like Azure, offered by Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT), and Google Cloud, offered by Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOGL). Nonetheless, in 2204, Amazon is at risk of falling behind Microsoft before 2030 if it can’t stop market share losses. Nonetheless, it generated $107.6 billion in sales in 2024 and should remain in its position as the world’s largest clown service.
3. Advertising: In 2024, Amazon’s full-year advertising revenue was $56.2 billion, bolstered by the first year ads ran on Prime Video and the inclusion of the NFL’s Thursday Night Football. That figure was nearly double the amount Amazon generated in ad revenue from the prior three years. Advertising has the ability to be another high-margin business line for the company. Last year, Amazon’s ad business grew faster than the company’s overall growth and ranked third in the digital advertising space behind only Alphabet and Meta Platforms (NASDAQ:META).

Amazon (AMZN) Stock Price Prediction in 2030: Bull, Bear & Baseline

24/7 Wall Street estimates that Amazon’s stock price in 2030 will be $430.50 in our bull case, $77 in our bear case and $250 for our baseline case. Each of these estimates comes from specific scenario analysis into their e-commerce, cloud computing, and advertising businesses.

Bull Case for Amazon’s Share Price

Our bull case for Amazon assumes they continue to top Wall Street projections for the following reasons:

• AWS: AWS will break continue to expand its cloud-generated revenue. However, its slowing growth is leading to concerns Amazon will continue losing market share to Microsoft’s Azure. Our bull case assumes Amazon effectively stems share losses and the growth of new AI models propels AWS to an 18% compounded growth rate (CAGR) through 2030. With that assumption, we estimate AWS would generate $86 billion in operating profits in 2030.
• E-Commerce: Amazon continues to pour investments into its e-commerce business, forgoing wider profit margins in order to maintain its market share. Our bull case model assumes growth in new logistics and efficiencies from robotics in warehouses leads to this unit finally delivering operating profits of about $30 billion annually.
• Advertising: As of 2024, Amazon’s advertising has seen a CAGR of around 26% and has seen a run rate in excess of $50 billion. Our bull case assumes a 15% CAGR through 2030 with 40% operating margins, which results in $50 billion in operating profits by 2030.

Add all these numbers up and take out some amount for “new bets” the company will surely be investing in, and we’re left with about $150 billion in operating profits. Today, the company trades for about 50X operating profit, which we’ll take down to 35 as the company matures (but continues showing strong growth). In our bull case analysis Amazon is worth $5.25 trillion in 2030, or about $430.50 per share.

Bear Case for Amazon’s Share Price

Our bear case scenario for Amazon is based on the following reasons:

• Cloud Competition: The threat from Microsoft Azure (and to a lesser extent, Google Cloud) is very real. By mid-decade, operating profits could stop growing for AWS as competitive pressures mount. If that results in the company continuing to lose market share, stock growth expectations could be tempered.
• Unprofitable Business Segments: Amazon has seen years of unprofitability in certain business segments, which could resurface amid pushes to remain competitive in certain markets. For example, in 2023, Amazon’s North American segment generated a $15 billion in profit, but its international segment incurred a $3 billion loss. In some years, its highly criticized Alex efforts have resulted in recurring operating losses of around $5 billion per year.
• Unsustainable Investments: If Amazon continues to burn money on “moonshots” looking for the next leg of growth, its share price could be hampered between now and 2030. Amazon is familiar with burning cash on ambitious projects, and its sizable investments in AI — $8 billion as of November 2024 — could prove to be the next iteration of that.

In this scenario, 24/7 Wall Street still sees Amazon growing its net income to beyond 2024’s $59.2 billion, which is a healthy increase from 2023. However, frustrated shareholders won’t be willing to pay the elevated P/E ratio at which Amazon trades (38.53 PE in Q1 2024). Instead, we apply a 20x P/E that better reflects Amazon in a low-growth state. Thus, in our bear case scenario Amazon trades for just $77 per share in 2030.

Base Case for Amazon’s Share Price

Our baseline case for Amazon’s share price is much simpler. In this scenario we simply look at Wall Street forecasts. Analysts see the company’s revenue rising from $710 billion in 2025 to $1.153 trillion by the end of 2030. Additionally, net income is projected to grow from $48.9 billion to $110.7 billion over the same time frame.

Long-term Wall Street forecasts generally overshoot, so assuming 2030 net income comes in at $100 billion, AWS likely sees its growth slowed — but still expands by around a 10% CAGR — the company doesn’t see as much profit from e-commerce as with our bull scenario and advertising also slows in the years to come. In this scenario, 24/7 Wall Street estimates Amazon’s P/E ratio would fall to about 26. This gives Amazon a baseline case share price of about $250.

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