Markets Close In The Green After Rollercoaster Ride

Monday, March 17, 2025

Market indexes took investors on a ride today, covering a wide range of terrain from more than -0.5% on the low end (Nasdaq) and nearly +1.5% (Russell 2000). The Trump administration has focused on deporting immigrants today and away from more bluster about tariffs, and we see the results: two straight up-days.

The Dow gained +353 points at the close, +0.85%, while the S&P 500 was up a more muted +36 points, +0.64%. The Nasdaq recovered to +54 points, +0.31%, while the small-cap Russell 2000 ruled the roost: +24 points, +1.19%. All these indexes finished off intra-day highs, but have now swung into the green over the past five trading days. Over the past month, they’re all still way down: -6%, -7%, -11% and -9%, respectively.
 

Homebuilder Confidence Sinks to 7-Month Low

The March read for the North American Home Builders (NAHB) Housing Market Index came in lower than expected: 39 versus 42 expected, which was also the print from a month ago. Current sales fell -3 points to 43, while sales expectations were flat month over month at 47. Tariff issues and labor shortages were among the issues cited for the weaker outlook for homebuilding. 

By the way, this week brings us some key homebuilding data: Housing Starts and Building Permits will be out tomorrow morning. Existing Home Sales are scheduled for Thursday, while Wednesday’s report from the Fed — while not expected to move from its current 4.25-4.50% Fed funds rate — may have something to say about housing data, either in the Fed’s statement, in Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference afterward, or both.

Business Inventories In-Line with Expectations

Looking backward a bit, this morning also brought us January Business Inventories. These came in-line with expectations at +0.3%, swinging to a positive from the unrevised -0.2% the previous month. Wholesale inventories shot up +0.8% (from -0.4% in December), while Retail came in flat (an improvement from flat the prior month). Year over year, inventories are +2.3% — a fairly benign level overall.

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