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Nvidia Earnings Live Updates: Wall Street Watching Chip Demand And Guidance Around Deepseek
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- Nvidia will release its fourth-quarter earnings after the closing bell on Wednesday.
- Shares of the chipmaking giant were down 6% year-to-date through Tuesday.
- Wall Street is looking for details about how the company plans to deal with China's DeepSeek model.
Nvidia will report fourth-quarter earnings on Wednesday after the closing bell.
The semiconductor firm will have to prove to investors that demand for its next-generation Blackwell chip continues to be strong, and that the company won't be negatively impacted by the jarring debut of China's DeepSeek AI model.
Nvidia's stock was down 6% year-to-date through Tuesday's close, lagging the S&P 500's 1% gain.
Analysts at Wedbush are expecting good news
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Analysts at Wedbush said the big question going into earnings is whether it will be another "$2 billion beat and $2 billion raise" quarter. The firm thinks they can pull it off.
"We expect another robust performance and 'clear beat and raise special' from Nvidia that should calm the nerves of investors as Jensen lays out the massive demand drivers from Blackwell and AI Capex in the field fueling this 4th Industrial Revolution," Wedbush said.
Wedbush said that based on its channel checks, a single AI enterprise deployment has not slowed or changed because of DeepSeek.
"No customer wants to 'lose their place in line' as it is described to us for Nvidia's next gen chips," Wedbush said.
DeepSeek won't lower sales for Nvidia, Bank of America says
Analysts at Bank of America expect Nvidia to beat earnings estimates and said they see the company's calendar year 2025 data center revenue surging 60% year-over-year.
"Despite DeepSeek's supposed "revolutionary" optimizations, there is no change thus far to spending intentions at NVDA large customers including Microsoft and Meta," Vivek Arya, analyst at Bank of America said in a note earlier this month.
Arya said that optimizations in hardware and software are "key parts of computing," so he doesn't expect DeepSeek efficiencies to lead to a reduction in sales for the company.
Looking past earnings, Arya said Nvidia's GTC conference in March is the next big catalyst. That's where the investor focus for Nvidia could shift away from Blackwell and toward its next-generation products, including the Rubin GPU and solutions for autonomous robots.
Bank of America rates Nvidia at a "Buy" with a $190 price target.
Nvidia's Blackwell GPU rollout is on track, analyst saysHuang holds up the Blackwell on the left and its predecessor, the H100, on the right.
Nvidia
Nvidia is likely to meet fourth-quarter revenue expectations and raise its first-quarter guidance "amid a significant ramp-up in its Blackwell GPUs," Kunjan Sobhani, tech analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, said last week.
Sobhani said Nvidia has overcome some recent supply-chain delays and concerns about hyperscaler demand, as evidenced by its stock price fully recovering the DeepSeek losses.
"Initial shipments to key customers began in 4Q and will increase through 1Q26," Sobhani said. "Increased capital-spending guidance from Meta, Microsoft, Amazon Web Services and Google aids our confidence in near-term sales."
Encouragingly, Sobhani said Nivida's profit margins could "return to the mid-70s" in the second half of the year after declining due to the Blackwell production ramp.
Nvidia's consensus fourth-quarter revenue estimate is $38.25 billion.
4th quarter
- Revenue estimate: $38.25 billion
Data center revenue estimate: $34.06 billion
- Compute revenue estimate: $30.17 billion
- Networking revenue estimate: $3.57 billion
- Gaming revenue estimate: $3.02 billion
- Professional Visualization revenue estimate: $507.3 million
- Automotive revenue estimate: $459 million
- Adjusted gross margin estimate: 73.5%
- R&D expenses estimate: $3.75 billion
- Adjusted operating expenses estimate: $3.4 billion
- Adjusted operating income estimate: $24.69 billion
- Adjusted EPS estimate: 84c
1st quarter
- Revenue estimate: $42.26 billion
- Adjusted gross margin estimate: 72.1%
- Adjusted operating expenses estimate: $3.62 billion
- Capital expenditure estimate: $760 million
Source: Bloomberg data
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