Russia Is Conserving Its Missiles To Launch Larger But Less Frequent Strikes Against Ukraine, Intel Says

Russian Tu-160 bombers, like the one pictured above, have been involved in massive attacks against Ukraine in recent months.

Russian Defense Ministry Press Service via AP, File

• Russia has changed the way it attacks Ukraine with missiles and drones in recent months.
• Since August, Russia has likely been conserving its munitions for larger but less frequent attacks.
• Britain's defense ministry said this strategy differs from Russia's approach earlier this year.

Russia is likely conserving its missiles and building up stockpiles to launch larger — but less frequent — attacks on Ukraine, according to a new Western intelligence assessment.

The Russian military has launched several big aerial bombardments against Ukraine this month, including one large-scale attack that saw Moscow fire more than 90 missiles and 190 drones at its neighbor. The simultaneous attacks increase the chances of some munitions breaking through Ukraine's air defense network and likely also aim to terrorize Ukrainians wearied by nearly three years of barrage.

Ukraine said Russian forces launched ballistic and cruise missiles from fighter jets, bombers, and warships in the December 12-13 attack, which was directed at its energy grid. Most of the missiles and drones were either shot down or failed to reach their targets.

A few weeks later, on Christmas Day, Russia launched another large-scale attack against Ukraine's energy sector with nearly 200 missiles and drones. The two strikes appear to reflect a recent change in Moscow's bombardment tactics. Ukrainians celebrated Christmas on Dec. 25 again this year, but Russia's Eastern Orthodox won't observe it until Jan. 7, 2025.

Kyiv city's military administration via AP

Britain's defense ministry wrote in an intelligence update over the weekend that, since August, "it is highly likely Russia has chosen to take time to build stocks between strikes and then launch in larger, less frequent strike waves, rather than the more frequent smaller attacks conducted earlier in the year."

The characteristics of the December 12-13 attack were similar to those of previous assaults, as they targeted Ukraine's critical infrastructure while also trying to overpower the country's air defenses with exploding drone swarms.

Britain's defense ministry cautioned on Saturday that "Russia retains the ability and the stocks to allow such assets to be employed in smaller numbers, as a punitive measure, with little or no warning."

Russia maintains a formidable arsenal of more than 1,500 cruise and ballistic missiles, which can be launched from air, ground, and sea-based platforms, according to some local media estimates. However, Moscow has also been forced to rely on foreign shipments from other internationally isolated states like North Korea and Iran.

AP Photo/Evgeniy Maloletka, File

Conflict analysts and US officials have said Russia's strike campaign against Ukraine's energy facilities is intended to force Kyiv and the West into making policy decisions that favor Moscow.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has repeatedly pressed his Western military backers for more air defenses and munitions to help the country defend against Russian assaults. After the Christmas Day attack, President Joe Biden said the US has sent Kyiv hundreds of air-defense missiles in recent months, with more on the way.

"I have directed the Department of Defense to continue its surge of weapons deliveries to Ukraine, and the United States will continue to work tirelessly to strengthen Ukraine's position in its defense against Russian forces," Biden said last week.

Meanwhile, the US on Monday announced nearly $2.5 billion in new security assistance to Ukraine, including air-defense munitions like the National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile Systems and other high-profile military aid.