The West Is Hastily Taking Notes From Ukraine And Gearing Up For Future Drone Wars

Ukraine and Russia are constantly trying to innovate on the battlefield to maintain an edge over each other, and drones are key.

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• Drones are big in the Ukraine war, and technology and tactics are rapidly evolving.
• NATO is taking note, realizing it desperately needs drones, too.
• A defense minister said the Ukraine war made his country realize it must "invest significantly."

Russia's invasion of Ukraine is a conflict dominated by drones, and NATO's been taking notes, learning how to move faster.

Uncrewed systems are being used more in this war than in any other conflict in history. They are expendable intelligence-gathering and surveillance platforms, bombers, minelayers, and even precision-strike options for attacks on troops, vehicles, and fixed positions like trenches, bases, and oil refineries.

Drones come in different designs and sizes, from smaller off-the-shelf drones that are available to civilians all over the world to larger, military-grade ones. They're versatile and expected to play a significant role in future fights.

One Ukrainian soldier who works with drones and unmanned systems told Business Insider that "what we're doing in Ukraine will define warfare for the next decade."

And Western countries are paying attention.

Learning from the war in Ukraine

Pål Jonson, Sweden's defense minister, said one of the key lessons identified by Sweden from war was the need for more autonomous capabilities. At war, Ukraine has been developing artificial intelligence-driven drones and other autonomous systems. There's tremendous innovation underway in the drone space.

"The scale and volume and also how quick technological developments have been taking place inside Ukraine: That made us cognizant that this is an area where we need to invest significantly," he said.

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Sweden said last month it had developed drone swarm technology that allows many different-sized drones to work together. This is something many other Western nations are working on as well with industry partners.

Sweden, like other NATO countries, is also investing in counter-drone technology and armed drones, Jonson said. "This is something we've been laser-focusing on."

Jonson said swarm drones took less than a year when it would typically take five. He said "we were laser-focused on developing this capability quickly to get this in the hands of the warfighter as quickly as possible."

The speed was possible because Sweden used a "slightly unconventional" process, including close collaboration between Sweden's military, its procurement agency, and other bodies.

Sweden joined NATO in March 2024, abandoning decades of neutrality in direct response to Russia's invasion.

It is among the members that exceed the 2% of GDP defense spending guideline set by NATO, and its military was designed to counter Russia. It has repeatedly warned the alliance needs to be prepared for a possible Russian attack. Jonson said last year that Russia "poses a threat to Sweden, as it does to the rest of NATO," adding that "we cannot rule out a Russian attack on our country."

Sweden's betting big on drones, and it isn't the only NATO ally doing so. The UK and Latvia founded a "drone coalition" last year to procure drones for Ukraine. It has 17 members, including France, Germany, Italy, and Canada, with support from members reaching around $1.8 billion last year.

Those lessons are being used at home as well to boost defense. Latvia is building a "drone army" for its own military. Andris Sprūds, Latvia's defense minister, told BI that the country is strengthening its drone capabilities "at all levels of the National Armed Forces."

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He said working so hard on the coalition isn't helping just Ukraine. Because Latvian companies are making some of those drones, and because drone technology is developing and being adapted so quickly, that work has been hugely helpful for Latvia's own defense.

He said the coalition has "made a significant contribution to the development of Latvia's drone industry."

And in Ukraine, he said, drones have "proven themselves to be critical in modern warfare."

Getting ready for a drone fight

NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte said last month that drones are changing the way war is fought, identifying this shift as a key observation from the war in Ukraine.

He said NATO is using drone tech in its operations in the Baltic Sea to defend against Russian hybrid attacks alongside "more traditional technology" like ships and aircraft.

He also told NATO allies in December to be ready for a drone fight, noting that the "Ukrainians are fighting against Russian swarms of drones. That's what we need to be prepared for."

There is a danger of moving too fast. Drone and counter-drone technology and tactics are rapidly evolving in Ukraine. Building too many drones too early without the ability to make improvements could see some systems become obsolete.

But Warfare experts say the key is to be ready, to have an industry that is monitoring, learning, and evolving too and ready to produce on a large scale, as well as a military that's trained and ready to incorporate and use drones when needed.

Arsen Dzodzaiev/Global Images Ukraine via Getty Images

Jonson said he advised all allies to invest in drone and counter-drone technology "because this is an aspect of contemporary warfare that has become very clear, has a very significant role on the battlefield in Ukraine."

European defense spending has soared, and many European countries say they'll spend much more, noting it is necessary. The timing is key for Europe, not just with Russia threatening the continent but with US President Donald Trump stepping back from European defense.

Sprūds said: '"We have to invest in our defense already today — this means increasing defense funding, ramping up production, boosting our resilience, and supporting Ukraine as it fights for all of us."