Bitcoin Assumptions May Be Off?

I'm into Bitcoin for the long-term and I'm "heavily" invested. However, there are a few common assumptions regarding Bitcoin that I'm not too sure about.

Many people plan their investing around the 4 year cycle and the halving. I understand the reasons why but there are several basic concepts in investing that generally hold true. One is that nothing is especially predictable other than a long upward trend in general (even that isn't guaranteed).

Once a pattern is deemed to be profitable then arbitrage generally collapses that pattern. The 4 year cycle of Bitcoin is based on 3 data points. That's not statistically significant.

The having reward is minor enough at this point that it's not really all that significant given the current daily volume. It may be a small factor but at this point I don't think it's especially significant.

I think that it's more likely that with a larger market cap that Bitcoin will begin to act like any other asset in that it won't be especially predictable and that while it will go up and down over time, it won't be confined by a 4 year cycle.

There is one view, with some logic behind it, that the cycle will be shorter this time since the gains are coming earlier, before the halving and that it has been priced in and that the gains will be higher this time due to the spot ETFs but that the down cycle will begin in early 2025.

As I said, there is some "logic" there but it still assumes the 4 year cycle. Maybe that is the way it will play out but I think eventually there won't be 4 year cycles and that there will just be indeterminate up and down years just as with any other asset. I may be wrong as well, of course.

My approach though is going to be to assume that it will behave more like most other assets. I'm not going to focus on "crypto spring, summer, fall, winter" and I'm not going to focus on the "halving".

I'll not sell most of my Bitcoin, especially for "timing" reasons and if I do sell some (never all) it will be for specific purposes. I'm older so it's not about buying a house (I already have one) but it may be to have a larger cash reserve (yes, even debased fiat is necessary currently) or to invest more in stocks if stocks are low and Bitcoin is becoming too large a percentage of my assets. Even though stocks aren't likely to have returns as great as Bitcoin, to me, it's still a prudent thing to do (some diversification).

Otherwise, my "advice" to anyone is to buy and don't sell (with the above exceptions). If I was young, I would be going all in with Bitcoin until I had substantial assets in Bitcoin. I'd put half in a Roth account and half in a taxable account. I'd do this before I started thinking about buying a house.

The longer you can put off buying a house, starting a family, the more likely you are to end up with a standard of living that is above "average". It's easy to be average. There is nothing exceptional about being young, getting married, having kids, paying for childcare, mortgages, minivan payments and complaining that the "American Dream" is expensive. That's not the path toward "success". Be different.

Work hard for at least 10 years and put everything into Bitcoin. Do that and you'll have more choices in life, you won't have to complain about the government, Boomers, things not being "fair" or "affordable". You won't have to worry about the "rich" or the "greedy" corporations.

Don't do that and you will be average (shudder):)

​