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Google's End-of-year Quantum Breakthrough: What It Means For The Ai Stock In 2025
Science fiction is really turning into science fact -- at least it seems like it if you follow Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOG) (NASDAQ: GOOGL) and its Google research programs. The Quantum AI research team just announced a revolutionary Quantum computer chip it calls Willow. With breakthroughs in reliability and computational intensity, Willow can pave the way for quantum computers to be used commercially in the near future.
But what exactly does this mean, and how could it impact Alphabet stock? Let's dive into this quantum breakthrough and how it connects to Alphabet's ambitions in the fast-growing field of artificial intelligence (AI).
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A step toward commercial viability
A quantum computer is a computer that utilizes the uncertainty principles of quantum mechanics. Instead of the digital "bits" used in regular computers, a quantum computer uses what are called qubits to compute problems. Due to the utilization of quantum mechanics, these computers can calculate complex problems much faster than a traditional supercomputer.
Researchers have had a major problem in developing these computers, though. Traditionally, a quantum computer will see increased error rates the more qubits you add to the system, meaning that the computer becomes unreliable as it scales up.
Willow has solved this issue and actually gets more accurate the more qubits are added. This is a huge breakthrough for the quantum computing field. Building on this breakthrough, Alphabet will be able to scale up to larger and larger quantum computers that it will eventually be able to commercialize in its cloud computing division.
The performance of Willow is staggeringly impressive. It was able to solve an intensely complicated computation in five minutes that a supercomputer would never be able to solve, or would take more time than we know the universe has existed to solve. Think about that for a second: Utilizing quantum mechanics is potentially offering the world a huge step change in computing resources.
Bringing advanced AI to the masses?
Being a leader in quantum computing may help Alphabet realize its ambitions in AI. Recent AI developments from the likes of OpenAI and Alphabet have seen rapid consumer adoption. The problem is, these tools currently require vast amounts of spending on data centers to train and run them. If usage of these tools grew by 100x or more, expenses for these technology giants would spiral out of control, or the companies would rapidly run into strains on their computing infrastructures.
Alphabet already has an advantage in solving this issue due to its long-running investments into AI computer chips it calls tensor processing units (TPUs) and its Google Cloud division. These help Alphabet efficiently scale its AI spending, while also allowing it to sell AI software tools to third-party companies. Even so, it is still limiting how many of its users get access to new AI tools, with some of the most advanced products under a paywall.
Other companies use the same strategy. Microsoft's Copilot tool is $30 per person per month for an organization to try, making it too expensive for most people.
Utilizing quantum computers for its computing infrastructure could help Alphabet reduce its computing costs, as well as help it solve vastly more complex problems for itself and third parties. This could help bring advanced AI tools to the masses. Alphabet has multiple products with over 2 billion users. Today, most of these users can't access its best AI software. Maybe with quantum computing, Alphabet will be able to offer these products for free to all of them.
It moves beyond the current chatbot and search products as well. Quantum computing should help solve major problems in medicine, cryptography, and cybersecurity that are limited by current computing systems. The opportunities are truly endless if Alphabet can commercialize the technology.
GOOG Capital Expenditures (TTM) data by YCharts
What it means for Alphabet stock in 2025
Quantum computing is a promising technology for Alphabet. If scaled up, it can further insulate Alphabet from the competition and allow the company to bring advanced AI tools to the masses in a cost-efficient manner. This could save Alphabet money and also lead to revenue growth, which would be great news for the stock.
Don't expect any of this to materialize in 2025, though. Watch out for more research achievements and AI updates, but it will be at least a few years (if not longer) that Alphabet's commercial products are running on quantum computers. It is a nascent research field.
Alphabet's stock rose to an all-time high right after Willow was announced, meaning that investors are optimistic about what it could mean for Alphabet's future. The financial impact will not be realized for a long while, though.
Still, it looks like Alphabet has put to bed any concerns that it has fallen behind in fundamental technological research. In fact, I think Willow proves it is in the lead when it comes to cutting-edge tech, which should help the company and stock performance over the long term.
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Suzanne Frey, an executive at Alphabet, is a member of The Motley Fool’s board of directors. Brett Schafer has positions in Alphabet. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Alphabet and Microsoft. The Motley Fool recommends the following options: long January 2026 $395 calls on Microsoft and short January 2026 $405 calls on Microsoft. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
