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Why I Just Bought More Chevron Stock And Plan To Continue Loading Up On The Oil Giant In 2025
I've been steadily buying shares of Chevron (NYSE: CVX) over the past couple of years. The main driver is the oil giant's high-yielding dividend, which provides me with a growing passive income stream. However, that's not the only catalyst. I think Chevron has the fuel to produce strong total returns over the coming years.
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Here's a closer look at why I can't seem to get enough of Chevron stock.
A lucrative income stream
Chevron is an elite dividend stock. It has increased its dividend for 37 straight years, the second-longest streak in the U.S. oil patch behind ExxonMobil. Chevron has delivered above-average dividend growth over the past five years, including an 8% raise earlier this year. The oil company's dividend yields 4.5% at recent prices, several times higher than the S&P 500's 1.2% dividend yield.
The company can easily afford to pay it. It generated $22.8 billion in cash flow from operations through the first nine months of this year, which covered both its dividend payments ($8.9 billion) and its capital expenditures ($12.1 billion) with room to spare. Chevron also returned a net $10.5 billion to investors through share repurchases. And after all that, its balance sheet was still strong enough that its ratio of debt to assets came in at 11.9%, well below its target range of 20% to 25%.
Chevron has stress-tested its business and can produce enough cash to cover its capital spending plan and a growing dividend through 2027 even if Brent crude prices (the global oil benchmark) fall from recent levels in the low $70s down to $50. And it would still have the balance sheet capacity to repurchase shares at the low end of its $10 billion-$20 billion annual target range.
Strong growth with a high-octane upside catalyst
The oil company is investing heavily in expanding its highest-return resource positions, like the Permian Basin in west Texas and southeastern New Mexico; the Gulf of Mexico; and Kazakhstan. These investments position the company to grow its production at an annual rate of more than 3% through 2027. Meanwhile, these high-return investments into higher-margin areas should fuel a more than 10% compound annual growth rate in its free cash flow during that period, assuming Brent oil averages $60 a barrel. At $70 a barrel, Chevron would produce enough cash flow from operations to fund its capital program, a growing dividend, and share repurchases at the top-end of its range without tapping into its balance sheet capacity.
Chevron has another big upside catalyst that could materialize in 2025. It agreed to buy Hess (NYSE: HES) for nearly $60 billion in late 2023. However, that deal has hit a snag because Exxon believes it triggers a change-of-control clause relating to its joint venture with Hess and a Chinese oil company (CNOOC) in Guyana. Exxon is trying to block the deal to potentially increase its stake in that world-class oil field. The oil giants are currently in arbitration over the matter, which should come to a resolution in 2025.
If Chevron wins, it will be able to close its needle-moving acquisition of Hess, which would add a position in Guyana to its portfolio and one in the Bakken shale play in North Dakota while bolstering its existing operations in the Gulf of Mexico and Southeast Asia. Acquiring Hess would enhance and extend Chevron's production and free cash flow growth outlook into the 2030s. The deal would more than double its free cash flow by 2027, assuming oil averages $70 per barrel.
Income and upside potential
Chevron provides me with a rock-solid income stream that should continue rising. On top of that, the oil giant has compelling upside potential as it invests in growing its high-margin operations with additional catalysts from higher oil prices and its pending Hess acquisition. The company should be able to produce solid total returns in the coming years, with the potential for a lot more if its upside catalysts hit. That compelling combo is why I recently bought more shares of Chevron and will likely continue adding to my position in 2025.
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Matt DiLallo has positions in Chevron. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Chevron. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
