Corelogic: Northeast, New England States Lead U.s. Home-price Gains

In the years following the COVID-19 pandemic, home prices have steadily risen, although 2024 saw more stabilized levels of affordability across the nation. According to property data provider CoreLogic, 17 states posted new home-price records in November.

CoreLogic released its November 2024 Home Price Index (HPI) and HPI forecast this week, which showed that U.S. single-family home prices increased by 3.4% year over year in November. On a monthly basis, prices were essentially flat. The median sale price for a single-family home in November was $395,000, up $10,000 from October.

CoreLogic anticipated a 20 basis-point decline in prices heading into December 2024. Although the company hasn’t released price data for last month, a new Realtor.com report highlighted a 180-bps decline for the year ending in December.

Chicago ranked No. 1 in annualized home-price gains among the 10 metro areas tracked by CoreLogic in November. In the Windy City, home prices ramped up 5.8% year over year.

Miami had the second-highest gain at 5.6%, followed by Las Vegas (+4.9%); Washington, D.C. (+4.9%); Boston (+4.6%); San Diego (+4.2%); Los Angeles (+3.4%); Houston (+2.8%); Phoenix (+1.9%); and Denver (+1.7%). CoreLogic described six of these cities as overvalued.

Northeastern and New England states led the way for annualized price appreciation in November. Prices in New Jersey were up 7.8%, followed by Rhode Island (+7.3%) and New Hampshire (+6.9%).

CoreLogic chief economist Selma Hepp believes that further cooling of price growth could continue for the foreseeable future.

“Heading into the end of the year, home prices remained relatively flat though showing some marginal improvement from the weakness seen moving into the fall and following the cooling of homebuyer demand amid the summer mortgage rate surge,” Hepp said in a statement.

“Nevertheless, the cooling home price growth trend is expected to continue well into 2025, partly due to the base effect and comparison with strong early 2023 price appreciation and partly due to higher mortgage rates coming into this year and the expectations of higher rates over the course of 2025. Regionally, variations persist, as some affordable areas – including smaller metros in the Midwest — remain in high demand and continue to see upward home price pressures,” she added.

CoreLogic identified five markets at high risk of price declines in 2025. These cities include Provo, Utah; Albuquerque, New Mexico; Tucson, Arizona; Phoenix; and Punta Gorda, Florida.

Potential mortgage rate increases could also hinder affordability alongside home-price appreciation. Mortgage rates remain above 7%, according to HousingWire‘s Mortgage Rates Center. CoreLogic anticipates a 380-bps increase in U.S. home prices by November 2025. Despite higher rates and prices, demand in “budget-friendly” markets remains healthy, the company explained.