Downward Trend In Agent Movement Continues Through December

Relitix’s latest release of the Agent Movement Index (AMI) through December 2024 confirms a continuation of the downward trajectory observed in recent months, underscoring the year-end slowdown and persistent market caution. While December often marks the lowest point seasonally, this year’s results reinforce the subdued climate that has defined much of 2024.

Key observations from December:

• Monthly score dips further: The monthly AMI value finished  at 69.7, reflecting one of the lowest readings of the year. 

• Seasonally adjusted figure holds modestly higher: Despite the overall decline, the seasonally adjusted metric reached 86.8, suggesting that December’s traditional lull in recruiting may account for some of the dip. 

• 12-month moving average: At 99.6, the trailing 12-month  average remains under the 100 baseline, extending the steady decline noted in our November and October releases. 

• Agent pool stabilizing at lower level: The count of active  agents—those closing at least one transaction in the past  year—has ticked down slightly, continuing the taper seen throughout most of 2024. 

“December’s data caps off a challenging year for agent mobility,”  said Relitix Founder, Rob Keefe. “Following the Presidential election and the final rollout of the NAR settlement, we’ve seen recruitment efforts cool and agents remain cautious. While this month’s dip in the raw data is partly seasonal, the broader downward trend is consistent with what we’ve reported over the last several releases. However, as the calendar turns to 2025 and the industry digests these structural shifts, we may see a renewed willingness among agents to explore new opportunities.” 

This month’s findings build on themes first noted in the early fall — namely, the drag on agent movement tied to macro-level uncertainties and the year’s major regulatory events. Our November 2024 report highlighted the effect of both the election cycle and the NAR settlement in cooling agent mobility, while October 2024 data showed that even a slight revision upward in seasonally adjusted figures had not reversed the overall decline. 

Looking ahead to 2025: 

Brokerage leaders and recruiters should be aware that the seasonal lull typically extends through the first quarter. However, as we transition into a post-election environment and brokerages finalize  adjustments to the NAR settlement, there is potential for a pick-up in recruitment. A watchful stance on external factors — such as interest rates, consumer confidence, and housing supply — remains  crucial, as these will likely dictate how quickly agent movement rebounds. 

The December AMI reading — encompassing the monthly score, seasonally adjusted index, and the  trailing 12-month figures — provides vital intelligence for brokerage decision-makers. By keeping a pulse on these indices, industry professionals can better align their recruitment and retention strategies with emerging trends. 

Rob Keefe is the president of Relitix.

This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of HousingWire’s editorial department and its owners.

To contact the editor responsible for this piece: zeb@hwmedia.com.