Rising Unemployment Is Shifting The D.c. Housing Market: Altos

Employment in the Washington, D.C. housing market is anything but stable right now — and residents are feeling it. According to D.C.’s Department of Employment Services, nearly 12,000 federal employees have filed initial unemployment claims amid widespread cuts enacted by Elon Musk and his DOGE agency. 

We’re tracking the Washington D.C. housing market using weekly data from Altos, which includes more than 60 different data points on every metro area in the country, to see how employment is changing the housing market. Let’s dive in.

What does unemployment in D.C. look like?

A rising unemployment rate might as well be the antithesis to home sales growth in the housing market: it’s hard to purchase a house or make housing payments without stable employment. 
According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the unemployment rate for the entire nation was 4.1% at the end of 2024. In the D.C metro area, the unemployment rate was 5.3% over the same timeframe. Data and common sense show that federal job cuts are stressing D.C’s job market. So how is the housing market responding?

Weekly housing inventory continues upward

Is inventory in the D.C housing market feeling the impact of the rough unemployment situation? This week’s inventory data gives us a vantage point into this week’s market dynamics.

Inventory for single-family homes in the D.C housing market rose to 3,768 this week. That’s a  5.8% increase from the week before. This week’s data also showcases increases from D.C’s inventory level compared to 2024. According to the data, there are now 12.6% more homes on the market than 2024. This gap will continue to climb in a high interest rate, high unemployment market. However, this is still less than what we’ve historically seen in March. For example, the inventory level in March 2020 was 6,075 homes — which is almost double what we’re seeing today.

New listings move upward, but remain historically low

Altos uses new real estate listings data as a key indicator of seller activity in the D.C housing market.  “New Listings” are the homes that were listed for sale in a given week and added to the active inventory.

According to this week’s data, new listings ramped up during the week ending on March 7. Around 601 single-family homes and 549 condos are on the market in D.C, that’s an increase of around 20% this week. New listings volume grows each year during the spring months, and this year seller rates appear to be accelerating faster than in recent years. 

As unemployment in D.C increases dramatically, one place to measure the impact will be in the growth of the weekly new listings count. The 2025 levels of new listings through early March have been approximately 300 to 400 per week. This level has been essentially the same as recent years and is significantly fewer sellers than what would have been common in the years before the pandemic.

“Watch this weekly signal to track how quickly changes in employment levels begin changing the housing market. In late March and April, if weekly seller volume surpasses 800 single-family new listings weekly, that’s a signal of a changing market,” said Altos Research founder and president Mike Simonsen.

Pending home sales ramp up yet again

Altos’ weekly pending contract data offers a vantage point into the trends in the D.C. housing market. The last five weeks of pending home sales data tells the story:

• Week of Feb. 14: 655
• Week of Feb 21: 596
• Week of Feb 28: 598
• Week of March 7: 629

Pending homes sales are a metric for understanding the demand side of D.C. supply and demand situation. 

“If we notice that new listings and inventory are climbing while pending home sales ramp down, that’s a signal that we need to keep an eye on,” Simonsen added. “This week, new listings, inventory and pending home sales are all up, so there’s no concern for now.”

Compared to the post-pandemic years, the pending sales rate hasn’t changed very much as of mid-March. Here’s the comparison:

• March 2025: 629
• March 2024: 715
• March 2023: 636
• March 2022: 1,068

Between March 2022 and March 2025, pending homes sales have only changed by 13% on average. Here’s the full historical pending home sales chart:

Price reductions drop again

The percentage of listings with price reductions, while at seasonal lows (26%), is still greater than last year (22%) signaling slightly weaker demand by potential homebuyers than a year ago. 

“Price reductions are an insightful demand indicator. And they may be the earliest leading indicator to watch if demand for homes in DC falls because of massive government reductions,” Simonsen said. “If offers don’t get made, sellers drop their prices to generate demand. So, we’re watching for any spike in price reductions.”

Where is the D.C. housing market headed?

With each passing day, job market changes and government policies regarding federal employment continue to impact residents in D.C. Meanwhile, home prices in some of D.C.’s prominent zip codes continue to rise. For example, in the city’s 20001 zip code — which is a short drive or metro ride away from Capitol Hill — the average home price was $949,999 during the week of March 7, according to Altos data. For context, that’s over $18,000 more than the week before. 

As we move into the spring home-buying season, keeping any eye on key indicators is essential for evaluating the D.C. housing market.