Senior Living Executive Forecast 2025: If You Aren’t Winning, You’re Losing

In 2024, senior living operators saw improved occupancy and margin growth but many challenges remain as the industry looks to live out the oft-said mantra of “thrive in ’25.”

Many in the industry, especially in the last two years, uttered the phrase, “survive to ’25,” stressing the many challenges operators face in providing care and delivering on promises of elevated lifestyle and independence.

But in many ways, the industry made progress in 2024, having weathered four years of constantly swirling headwinds. As the new year dawns, operators look to capitalize on growing demand and a post-pandemic landscape, which has lately fueled occupancy and revenue growth and sets the stage for continued progress in 2025.

Now, senior living providers that are on firmer footing have some crucial choices before them as they enter the new year, facing some uncertainties but also with an opportunity to consolidate gains and push forward more boldly. HumanGood CEO John Cochrane puts it bluntly:

“This is not a moment to sit back. This is a time for action. In today’s environment, if you aren’t winning, you’re losing. The choices are simple: step on it or step out. There’s no middle ground,” Cochrane told Senior Housing News. “We have a unique opportunity as we head into 2025 and look beyond this year, to accelerate and capitalize on the advantages we’ve built as operators and as an industry.”

Senior Housing News connected with various senior living leaders to understand industry sentiment heading into 2025, and this article is the first installment in a two-part series highlighting their thoughts in their own words.

Cindy Baier, CEO, Brookdale Senior Living

The U.S. population is aging at the fastest rate in more than a century, and we should expect to see a continuing demand for our services in 2025. According to the U.S. Census Bureau, 28% of older adults in the United States are childless and living alone. Solving for loneliness is certainly a challenge for us as a nation, but it’s one that I’m grateful Brookdale is positioned to address.

At Brookdale, we understand the harmful effect that isolation can have on seniors, and we strive to build our communities into wonderful solutions for loneliness. Our sincere focus on helping foster and nurture connections is one of our biggest organizational strengths. To help achieve these connections, we are continually looking for new ways to help match our residents with potential new friends who share their interests and aspirations.

In 2024, severe weather, once again, presented us with a challenge. Four different hurricanes caused significant damage and thousands to lose power this year. At Brookdale, 13 of our 68 Florida-based communities evacuated ahead of Hurricane Milton’s impact. Despite the challenging circumstances, we have established emergency plans in place and work hard to maintain the highest level of normalcy possible for our residents’ everyday lives.

As the largest senior living provider in the country, our size and scale provide great benefits to our residents and families. Closely maintained relationships with hotels, pharmacies, bus vendors, damage restoration vendors, and food suppliers allow us to mitigate much of the post-storm effects. Our associates worked tirelessly in our communities and across our district, regional, divisional, and Community Support Centers. We are proud of our disaster response and will continue to prepare and fine-tune our emergency response plans as we await whatever severe weather comes our way in 2025.

We’re also excited about the continuing success of Brookdale HealthPlus, our community-based, proactive care coordination program. This summer, an independent third party confirmed ER/urgent care visits were 80% lower and hospitalizations were 66% lower for Brookdale HealthPlus residents compared to seniors living in other senior living communities or independently. By focusing on preventive care, effective management of chronic conditions, and coordination of urgent care needs, we aim to further improve overall health outcomes and promote a better quality of life for our residents.

Although technological advances are helpful, it is really our people that make the difference. At Brookdale, we believe that our greatest asset is our associates, and we work hard to provide them a place to learn and grow professionally. Over the last two years, we have made significant progress to stabilize our overall workforce. In 2024, we refreshed our training to be more engaging and personalized while ensuring that we continue to provide high-quality care and maintain regulatory compliance.

This past year we have faced formidable challenges, celebrated hard-fought wins, and learned invaluable lessons. In 2025, we will continue to maintain our focus on creating customized resident experiences in communities where residents are able to pursue their passions and connect meaningfully with others. Whether it’s the personalized care we provide, the heartfelt connections we build, or the support we offer one another, our “Cornerstones”–of passion, courage, partnership, and trust–will be at the center of the work we do every day.

Michael Levine, Senior Managing Director of Real Estate, Active Adult, Greystar

For Greystar, we anticipate significant growth in 2025, both in terms of owned assets and third-party business. Over the next 12 months, we plan to develop 7 to 10 new communities while continuing to expand our third-party portfolio.

The market has become more competitive, especially in the active adult sector, where we’re seeing more deals approved and a broader reassessment of how communities are managed. We are increasingly competing with multifamily developments, as some are experiencing declines in occupancy and rental rates—an emerging dynamic for the active adult space.

In more challenging markets, we’ve had to streamline programs and expenses, yet Greystar continues to experience strong renewal rates and rent growth within our stabilized portfolio. Active adult communities are complex to manage, given their smaller onsite staff compared to independent living, necessitating a larger regional team for effective operations.

To support this, we’ve made continued investments in our platform, enhancing not just operations but also sales, lifestyle services, and specialized roles to drive the sector forward. However, I remain concerned about the early-stage nature of the industry and the growing tendency to misclassify communities that don’t truly fit the active adult category.

Looking ahead to 2025, Greystar is excited about our growth in technology and hospitality. We’ve placed significant focus on both areas in 2024, laying the foundation for a platform that not only handles more but is better equipped to assess and respond to resident needs. Furthermore, we believe the housing industry as a whole has yet to fully embrace the importance of hospitality. To address this, we’ve spent the last nine months developing a new hospitality program, which will gradually roll out in Q1 of 2025, with a full launch expected by the end of Q2.

This initiative will introduce unique, signature touches from the initial lead contact through to the move-out process—what we’re calling Greystar “Signatures.” We are making a tremendous effort to grow our lifestyle program by rebranding it and utilizing unique technology to capture instantaneous feedback from residents so we can adapt and evolve in 2025.

In 2025, the active adult industry will redefine what it means to age with purpose, blending innovation, community, and lifestyle to create vibrant spaces where residents don’t just live—they thrive. The future isn’t about slowing down; it’s about embracing new possibilities, and we’re just getting started.

John Cochrane, President and CEO, HumanGood

This is not a moment to sit back. This is a time for action. In today’s environment, if you aren’t winning, you’re losing. The choices are simple: step on it or step out. There’s no middle ground.

We have a unique opportunity, as we head into 2025 and look beyond this year, to accelerate and capitalize on the advantages we’ve built as operators and as an industry. At HumanGood, we just finished our best year ever, with historic highs in occupancy, Net Promoter Score (NPS), engagement, operating margins, and ratings. It’s the culmination of everything we’ve worked toward over the last few challenging years, but we didn’t get here to rest on our laurels. Strategy is about creating sustainable, defensible differentiation. If your strategy is just about holding steady, or if you can’t clearly articulate what makes you different and better than the competition (primarily being the home) you don’t have anything to sell.

Last year, I said that we are standing at the crossroads of a technology and healthcare revolution, and it’s rapidly shifting the momentum in favor of health and wellness as key drivers of our business. The demand for models that promote well-being—models that are measurable, sustainable, and affordable—is only increasing. Our industry is positioned squarely in the middle of the action, with our expertise, access, and trust with the customer base, and it’s time to recognize, celebrate, and promote what we bring to the table that others cannot, and we need to be much more aggressive and intentional in our actions.

While much of the conversation will focus on development opportunities, which there will be plenty of in the coming years, 2025 will present a chance to pivot and revolutionize the approach to aging. The idea that we can stay healthier and more active for longer is no longer science fiction—it’s a challenge we must embrace. XPRIZE Healthspan is a global competition exploring this very concept: can we reverse the biomarkers of aging? Can we stay healthier and active longer into our lives? In 2025, we have opportunities to prove that we can not only think about these concepts but help make them a reality. With our expertise and experience, why aren’t we the ones asking the tough questions and leading the way? If we don’t act now, our customers’ expectations for living better, for longer, may no longer match with the actual product we put in front of them.

Let’s be clear: The death of the retirement community is exaggerated. What we offer now is and will still be very much in demand in 2025, but operators who have struggled to right their ships after the pandemic will face even choppier waters in the new year. Strong operating margins, a stronger grasp of the regulatory environment and a healthy core business are the underpinnings needed to explore new avenues in the future. And those new ventures are the ones that will drive long-term growth and attractiveness for our sector.

Labor and workforce development will also play a critical role in our continued success. In 2025, organizations that balance rising costs with effective labor management, while adapting to the constantly shifting regulatory environment, will be better positioned to thrive. Those with strong internal cultures—especially those that prioritize inclusion and collaboration—will be the ones who not only survive but continue to grow.

Of course, we must acknowledge the challenges we face: regulatory hurdles and an uncertain economic forecast are threats to progress. But we’ve overcome even greater obstacles before. Just four years ago, a global pandemic threatened everything we built. That challenge made us stronger—it proved our creativity, resilience, and ability to adapt. We need to put those hard-earned lessons to work. We are uniquely positioned, stronger than ever, and ready to lead. The future is ours to shape—but only if we take the actions needed. Let’s push forward with confidence, seize the opportunities ahead, and set the pace for the future of aging. Now is the time.

Doug Leidig, President and CEO, Asbury Communities

I’ve always believed that senior living is about more than just a place to live—it’s about a community where people feel cared for, supported, and respected. We’re not just building communities; we’re building relationships, and that’s something that drives me every day. I think the future of senior living should be about enabling residents to live their best lives, and that’s what we’re focusing on at Asbury in 2025.

I think senior living will face the following challenges in 2025:

• Tremendous costs to upgrade old and expensive buildings and equipment, and high interest rates equate to even greater expenses in addressing and building new housing opportunities
• Aligning offerings to evolving consumer preferences
• Senior living must strive for operational excellence to improve the industry’s default rate.
• Providers need to quickly establish IT infrastructures to leverage the need for data and AI to run the business better and meet the needs of future consumers and business partners.
• Regulations and government oversight—there seems to be hope that the new administration will review the heavy hand of oversight and regulations, such as staffing mandates.
• Succession planning for C-level executives and creating the pipeline for the next five to 10 years
• Senior living providers’ influence and collaboration with tech startups to pilot new technology and perhaps create other revenue streams

As we look ahead to 2025, one of the most pressing concerns is the ongoing staffing crisis. Finding and retaining talent, especially frontline caregivers, remains a challenge. We are seeing an uptick in turnover, particularly among entry-level positions. To address this, we are increasing our investment in well-being programs and competitive benefits, ensuring that Asbury is a place where our associates feel supported and valued.

I am worried about providers’ access to capital for growth and necessary investments in addressing dated buildings and equipment. We hear of more banks and lenders shying away from senior living today. I believe longer-term investments in senior living are a significant opportunity.

Another challenge is the cost of construction. Building new communities is becoming more expensive due to rising material costs, particularly steel, and the ongoing construction labor shortage. We are exploring creative solutions and partnerships to continue our expansion while managing these cost pressures.

I’m also concerned about the pressure on margins and rate growth. As we continue to grow and serve more residents, we must ensure we do not sacrifice quality of care to meet growth targets. The baby boomer generation is here, and the demand for senior living services will only increase. We must balance building for the future (programs and brick-and-mortar) with meeting current needs.

I am excited about several opportunities at Asbury Communities. The first is how Asbury has been expanding our technology utilization and embracing innovation more. With the Asbury Smart Living initiative, we’re leading the way in aging-in-place technology. By collaborating with the AgeTech Collaborative from AARP, we’re bringing cutting-edge solutions to our communities, offering residents a chance to live independently and with dignity, which is something we’re incredibly proud of. I believe if we do this well, others will be interested in collaborating with us.

Our IT company, ThriveWell Tech, has pivoted to support providers for digital transformations, use robotic process automation, and leverage data in meaningful ways. The combination of these opportunities, plus exploring how to leverage AI across Asbury, is very exciting to me. We can truly shift from reactive to predictive care due to data and AI and influence Asbury’s well-being programs, the next area that excites me for 2025.

Asbury leaders and associates have shaped our commitment to resident well-being over the past three years. Three of our communities and one well-being director received recognition as national leaders in senior wellness from the International Council on Active Aging this past year, and we are working to expand our programming across the Asbury system. Additionally, by further integrating technology and innovation, we have the opportunity to start drilling down and targeting plans for specific disease management, like Parkinson’s and brain health.

With programs like Be Well at Asbury, we’re supporting associates and ensuring they thrive both personally and professionally. I’m proud of our commitment and investment in delivering on our associate value proposition: “Caring for you so you can serve others.”

Another top priority is continuing to lead in technology innovation. We are focused on expanding Asbury Smart Living to bring technology-driven solutions that will enhance the lives of our residents. Our collaboration with the AgeTech Collaborative is just the beginning, and we are excited about the future potential of smart home technology in senior living.

We’re also continuing to diversify our revenue streams, right-size skilled nursing facilities, and grow. We are focused on community engagement and deepening our commitment to building a culture of belonging at Asbury.

I think the industry needs to rethink its approach to growth and development. While we’re all excited about the growth of the baby boomer generation, we need to ask ourselves: Are we truly ready for the influx? It’s not just about building more communities; it’s about making sure they are equipped with the right services, technology, and support systems to meet the needs of an aging population. I also believe that as we look at ways to survive and thrive as an industry, we can be bolstered by more collaboration between for-profit and not-for-profit organizations.

We recently finalized the next iteration of our strategic blueprint, and I look forward to further evolving our organization and enhancing the experiences of associates and those we serve.

Lastly, we’re also incredibly excited about the Asbury Foundation’s Everyday Exceptional Campaign. This initiative is more than just a tagline—it’s a commitment to creating a culture where every associate and resident feels recognized, valued, and empowered. The impact we’re already seeing from this initiative has been inspiring, and I’m excited to see how it continues to shape Asbury’s future.

Laurie Schultz, Principal and Co-Founder, Avenue Development

We are invigorated as we look at the multitude of opportunities in 2025 and beyond, from new operating models to acquisitions and even a pipeline of new development. The industry is facing an unprecedented amount of demographic demand for age-restricted housing and especially needs-based senior living in the next decade; 2025 is our defining moment of action to meet consumer demands and bring fresh investment into the industry.

Assisted living and memory care occupancy will benefit from continued pent-up demand and lack of new development supply, but pressures on operating margins will compound until our industry embraces more sustainable business models and creative partnerships. Capital partners with existing senior living exposure continue to face limited liquidity bandwidth and will reserve funding for continued distressed acquisition opportunities.

To help attract new capital infusion in senior living, we must embrace value-based care operating models to reduce operating expenses, increase staff satisfaction and retention, and, most importantly, improve resident health outcomes. This will be the year to create actionable operating models that pair our industry’s large resident pool with advances in healthcare sector patient care and monitoring technology to help residents maintain and improve their health. Unlocking resident health benefits will attract new investment from a much broader pool of healthcare private equity and venture capital funds than currently exists in traditional senior housing.

This infusion will open doors in the coming years to attract payors and create increased partnership opportunities and new revenue streams from various provider programs through CMS (the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services). We desperately need new operating models to make senior living a sustainable business for the next decade, when the boomers are at the height of demand for higher-acuity settings.

Social-focused senior housing environments, including independent living and active adult communities, will see robust demand in 2025 and beyond. However, independent living occupancy will face challenges in attracting new residents in many markets.

This year’s action item is to ask ourselves: Do we really have a product to attract boomers over the next decade? Active adult is already creating competition for many independent living communities as it more closely meets the demands of boomers.

I was at an event recently for our first Viva Bene active adult community in St. Peters, Missouri, a suburb of St. Louis, where a resident told the group that he is moving to our community to be social again. He said it was important that he not just live in proximity to his peers but that he have shared experiences with them.

The days of a generic building design with a common dining room are obsolete. Boomers want a customized experience, from the design of their apartment home to individualized activities that allow them to continue living their purpose. Avenue is addressing this demand with a personalized, preventative wellness focus in our Viva Bene brand. There are numerous opportunities this year to create new experience-based living environments with a focus on the individual.

In 2025, we are pursuing both new developments and the repositioning of acquisitions to a model similar to Viva Bene. The financial feasibility of ground-up development will remain challenging due to prolonged elevated interest rates, potential tariff pressures on material pricing, and a shortage of construction labor.

Labor constraints will not ease after this year or even this economic cycle, as demand for construction management professionals and subcontractors far outpaces the availability of labor, even with the slowdown in development. We will continue to battle hard costs in our proformas for many years, making it paramount to focus efforts this year on reinventing our operating models in innovative ways.

Alain Champagne, President and CEO, Le Groupe Maurice

The senior housing industry is poised for growth in 2025, driven by the demographic wave of an aging population. With increased access to funding, particularly through the expected reopening of capital markets, there is a significant opportunity to expand and meet the growing needs of older people. Our focus, therefore, will be on developing new residential complexes that provide enhanced well-being through modern accommodations and services.

That said, the industry continues to face significant challenges. Rising construction costs, which have escalated since the pandemic, have made financing new projects increasingly difficult. Additionally, a persistent labor shortage remains a critical issue. To address this, we will continue to reduce our reliance on third-party staffing agencies within our assisted living units. In turn, we will favor our more stable, dedicated workforce, ensuring high-quality care for residents.

Another challenge lies in supporting seniors’ autonomy and encouraging treatment at home instead of in more expensive government healthcare facilities. There is a pressing need for increased government support for home care programs, which would improve residents’ comfort and dignity while easing pressure on public services that are currently strained. Advocacy for a more efficient regulatory environment also remains a priority. The explosion of new rules post-pandemic has created significant operational complexity, contributing to the acceleration of closures within the senior housing industry in Canada.

Despite these challenges, promising opportunities to innovate and adapt are emerging. Leveraging technology will be crucial to streamline operations, control costs, and enhance employee satisfaction. At Le Groupe Maurice, our efforts are centered on aligning services with the evolving needs of older individuals, emphasizing health, community, fighting isolation, and fostering inclusion. By addressing these priorities, we aim to create a supportive, inclusive environment that enhances their quality of life and ensures the long-term sustainability of the industry.

Dwayne Clark, CEO, Aegis Living

There’s been a mantra making its rounds through many of my senior housing networks: “Stay Alive in 2025.” This doesn’t resonate with me. My motto is “Take Your Licks Until 2026.”

I see 2025 as a year of challenges, transitioning into progress and culminating in a pivotal shift for the senior living industry as we approach 2026. Here’s why.

Strategic Growth and Consolidation
As we all know, by 2025, approximately 30 million baby boomers will have turned 80, driving unprecedented demand for senior living facilities. Current owners and operators in our industry will further be bolstered by the lack of development of new communities in the last four years due to COVID and the highest interest rates we’ve seen in over a decade. We’re also seeing unprecedented acquisition opportunities that speak to sellers’ distress. I recently saw a new building in Seattle that sold for $231K a unit—much below initial construction costs.

Rather than reacting to distressed assets, Aegis is strategically searching for the diamond in the coal mine—properties that align with our brand and long-term goals. We remain cautious but optimistic, focusing on financial strength and brand integrity rather than reactive mergers. Consolidation trends will create opportunities, but not all will succeed—particularly those born of necessity. Strategic acquisitions will favor companies with clear visions and sound financial foundations.

With anticipated decreases in interest rates, financing conditions will improve, fostering strategic growth. The 2025 political landscape, shaped by a pro-business regulatory framework, may further encourage innovation and consolidation.

Lifestyle Shifts in Adult Children
As younger generations become caregivers, there is a shift toward prioritizing lifestyle and autonomy for their aging loved ones, influencing the demand for premium senior living experiences. This shift will open doors for designing vibrant, wellness-driven spaces and fostering intergenerational connections, ultimately redefining the perception of senior living as a lifestyle choice rather than a last resort. This shift will allow for new revenue streams for companies that innovate in this area.

Challenges in Management and Labor
The biggest hurdle won’t be capital or demand but the scarcity of quality management companies to stabilize assets. This shortage will drive record valuations for established management firms as new players seek to enter the industry.

With regard to labor, I recently had the opportunity to meet Alvin Wang Graylin, a leading expert on AI and the author of Our Next Reality: How the AI-Powered Metaverse Will Reshape the World. Alvin shared an intriguing perspective: In the next five to seven years, some industries may begin paying people to stay home due to advances in automation and AI. However, he noted that the high-touch nature of the assisted living industry means it will likely be among the last sectors to fully embrace robotics and AI. While industries like manufacturing and retail may experience significant layoffs due to automation, senior living could benefit from this shift by attracting workers displaced from other fields. In senior living, the human connection is paramount, so automation will be a tool to enhance, not replace, the essential human element of care. Balancing this technological evolution with our people-first ethos will be key.

Improving Market and Shifting Political Climate
We will see significant capital flow into the senior living industry from both domestic and international sources. However, as demand spikes, the shortage of “quality management companies” capable of guiding properties through stabilization will become a pressing issue. This imbalance is likely to create a new era in senior housing, where the demand for experienced management firms could surpass the demand for new properties.

2025 will be known as the year of resetting leases that are not accretive to operators. For example, Brookdale recently announced that it is terminating 120 leases with Ventas. Establishing a management company with an exceptional track record is a lengthy process, making existing, well-run firms highly sought after. The issue in the future will be that there will not be enough quality operators to offload leases to in order to make properties profitable. Consequently, we anticipate exceptional management companies will have record-breaking valuations. You’ll see new management companies formed that will have a long highway in front of them in an effort for them to be successful. The old-school method of real estate owners (whether they be a REIT or an equity group) offering operators a 5%-6% management fee is over. Good managers will want substantial real estate ownership stakes in any properties they manage.

At the same time, the stigma of COVID-19 that has posed a persistent challenge for senior living is gradually fading. This fading stigma, paired with a more favorable tax and regulatory environment under the current Republican-led House and Congress, will create conditions ripe for growth and innovation. Aging founders and CEOs, many of whom are now in their 50s, 60s, and 70s, may view this period as an opportune moment to transition their businesses. These dynamics could stimulate an increase in sales of management companies to new buyers who recognize the incredible potential of the senior living sector. With the “hockey stick” of aging baby boomers driving demand, these buyers will likely acquire management companies at unprecedented valuations, signaling a transformative period for the industry.

Outlook for 2025
Strategically, we are taking a cautious yet optimistic approach to growth. This year, we successfully opened two new communities, with another planned for 2025 and two more in development. Simultaneously, we are closely monitoring consolidation trends as financial strain drives mergers and acquisitions. Not all of these combinations will be accretive—especially when struggling companies merge out of necessity. However, for organizations with strong financial foundations and clear strategic visions, these consolidations present valuable opportunities.

Our focus remains on building and expanding our brand of successful communities rather than reacting to market pressures or necessity. As we navigate 2025, balance sheet resilience will be critical—cash on hand will be more important than ever.

I firmly believe that 2025 will mark a pivotal transition for senior living, driven by demographic shifts, improved market conditions, and consolidation of companies. I am confident the industry will emerge stronger, bolstered by our unwavering commitment to serving the needs of the people at the heart of our work.

Bryan Schachter, Chief Investment Officer, Watermark Retirement Communities

As we look ahead to 2025, we are bullish about the progress we are making in our portfolio of communities.

Watermark has seen strong growth in occupancy as more and more of our communities are achieving stabilized occupancy and our developments are rapidly filling up. With so much of the expense pressures now absorbed, community net operating income and margins are recovering and/or exceeding expectations.

We are seeing downward trends in agency, overtime, open positions and associate turnover, which translates to an improved product and bottom-line results. While the days of 8% to 10% rent growth are likely gone, we still see the opportunity to recover margin through more moderate rate growth, pushing the envelope on membership fees and continuing to manage expenses.

On the new business side, we are well positioned with a strong development pipeline and anticipate several projects getting underway in 2025. These projects will continue to align with our strategy of higher-end and larger scale independent living, assisted living and memory care projects in either primary or secondary markets (concentrated on the “smile states” where we already have a strong presence). We have found these projects to be capable of overcoming the expense pressures that have plagued the industry in recent years and are more attractive to the baby boomers who are now beginning to hit our target market. The future is bright for the industry and Watermark is prepared to capitalize on the surging fundamentals.

Greg Puklicz, President, 12 Oaks Senior Living

For 2025, our thematic goal will be based on the ongoing development of sustainable excellence in our management model and in our communities. Specifically, we see opportunities to improve community performance and provide better outcomes for our residents, staff, and stakeholders through two main areas of focus.

The first is revenue optimization, which we define as occupancy growth to stabilization across each and every community in the portfolio, coupled with RevPAR growth through fair rate increases for existing residents and a weaning off of concessions for new residents, resulting in a return to market rates. If we are able to manage the top line and optimize value creation through revenue, we will provide a sustainable revenue stream for the portfolio.

The second key area of focus at the community level will be increasing employee support and engagement, with a view to reducing turnover, particularly in caregivers, to enhance the employee experience and culture at the community level. We have enjoyed success at the leadership and staff positions; however, we need to enhance our efforts to ensure line employees are our focus for 2025.

As an operator, we will continue our focus on developing sustainable excellence in our operating model through two key initiatives: the ongoing implementation of value-based care and the integration and coordination of our operating systems to ensure operating decisions are data-driven in a timely and efficient manner.

12 Oaks Senior Living will continue to grow and expand as a best-in-class operator with a continuing focus on achieving sustainable excellence at both the community and corporate levels.

Steve Lindsey, CEO, GardenSpot

Our industry has been through some difficult years, and “Thrive in 25” has a natural appeal. But as great as that sounds, it may not be as easy to bring it into reality.

Following the election, we have a new administration preparing to take on the many challenges that our country faces, and no one is certain what to expect. This change could pave the way for less regulation and greater economic prosperity, or it could lead to chaos and turbulence in the markets. How that plays out may have a significant impact on access to capital and risk tolerance for providers looking at new projects.

Staffing will continue to be an ever-increasing challenge as the labor force participation rate (LFPR) remains below pre-pandemic levels, and steadily declining birth rates over recent decades indicate that the workforce will continue to shrink in future years unless the federal government fixes the immigration system.

The cost of construction continues to rise, although at a slower pace than the previous year, which will make growth (especially growth targeted at the middle market) a challenge.

Aging infrastructure in many senior living communities lacks market appeal, especially to baby boomers.

Older adults remain a marginalized population in our culture, so the issues that providers face will continue to lack appeal to legislators and policymakers. As a result, federal and state funding for housing and healthcare services will continue to lag.

That said, I am optimistic about the opportunities for growth and development in 2025 in a number of areas.

Momentum for affiliations and acquisitions will continue as struggling organizations raise their hand and seek partnerships that will secure their future, and organizations that are financially solid begin to see the benefits of scale. In the nonprofit world, affiliation will continue to lose its stigma, and boards will see this as an ever more viable option to safeguard their mission and ensure long-term sustainability.

Growth will not be limited to affiliations and acquisitions, as providers realize that we are falling behind the demographic curve and are missing out on an opportunity to serve a growing population.

With the post-pandemic crisis fading in our rearview mirror, 2025 is the year that we begin to see new–and more creative–service delivery and housing models being developed.

Financial constraints will lead to new innovation as organizations explore new business opportunities that create revenue streams to support the mission without digging deeper into the residents’ pockets (e.g., at GardenSpot Village, we built a storage unit business that is marketed to the broader community in order to provide revenue for missional activity that doesn’t impact our resident population. Others are looking at ancillary services like pharmacy, rehab, etc.).

Value-based care will take center stage as this new strategy for healthcare delivery gains both attention and momentum across our spectrum of post-acute services, resulting in new models and partnership opportunities. Continuing care at home will reach a wider market. Partnerships that made no sense a few years ago will begin to have appeal. New models that explore intergenerational connections will emerge. Providers will look beyond the traditional models (healthcare settings, life plan communities, etc.) to find new offerings that appeal to the diverse needs of the baby boomers (and soon the Gen X population, who will start turning 60 in 2025).

Technology, and in particular generative AI, will continue to have an ever-increasing role in operations as we look for ways to streamline back-office operations and gain efficiency for front-line staff. New technologies are continuing to be developed that will monitor the health and safety of the people we serve and will be delivered to the market in a more cost-effective manner, leading to more widespread adoption. New opportunities for resident engagement will continue to emerge.

Because of workforce constraints, 2025 will be a year when we make strides in becoming a more people-positive environment for our staff. We will need to become much more creative in finding ways for people to work the flexible schedules they desire, customize their benefit plans to their own needs, meet their mental health needs, and support them in meeting both their personal and professional goals in whatever stage of life they find themselves.

Futurist Bob Johansen has said that in the future, “Anything that can be distributed will be distributed … The practices of centralized organizations will become brittle in a future where authority is radically decentralized.” This shift will require new operating systems, so crafting culture and systems that resonate with a changing workforce will become an even higher priority for leadership.

Social responsibility will continue to broaden in scope. At GardenSpot Communities, our envisioned future is to “Spark a Pro-Aging Revolution,” so we are looking forward to other changes as well. There is a growing discontent with rising levels of isolation, and we see 2025 as a year where the pendulum begins to shift back and people begin to see the benefits of living in a true community. We will begin to have more conversations about how the consumerist model of American culture has failed us, and we all need to be more involved in shaping the culture we desire in order to achieve the outcomes we need for our children and grandchildren to thrive.

This means that our senior living communities could (and should) be viewed as repositories of wisdom, life experience, and knowledge that can become hubs and resources for our larger communities—places where relationships between diverse people are facilitated as we explore what it means to be a true elder in our 21st-century world—where we reject the idea that age is a liability, but simply a reality that can be leveraged in ways that improve the life of the individual, the well-being of the community, and benefit society.

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