Cpi Preview

The Consumer Price Index for November is scheduled to be released tomorrow. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in CPI, and a 0.3% increase in core CPI.  The consensus is for CPI to be up 2.7% year-over-year and core CPI to be up 3.3% YoY.

From Goldman Sachs economists:

We expect a jump in used car prices (+2.0%), another increase in airfares (+1.0%) reflecting strong pricing trends, an increase in apparel (+0.5%), and a rebound in car insurance (+0.5%), but a decline in communications (-0.5%) due to seasonal distortions. We expect the shelter components to slow on net (OER +0.33%, rent +0.28%).

We forecast that the headline CPI rose 0.28% in November and 2.7% year-on-year, reflecting higher food (+0.25%) and energy (+0.3%) prices.

We forecast core CPI inflation decelerated slightly to 0.2% m/m (0.23 unrounded) in November after three consecutive 0.3% m/m prints. As a result, the y/y rate should tick down a tenth to 3.2%.