A Reality Check For Trump, Would-be-ruler Of Greenland

Donald Trump’s gambit to buy Greenland may sound ridiculous, but it’s not impossible.

If the president-elect is really determined to control the world’s largest island, he could try to buy it outright if the autonomous territory declares independence from Denmark. He could seek to make it a commonwealth like Puerto Rico. Or he could even weave Greenland into a deal like the United States has with Micronesia and the Marshall Islands that gives the U.S. military unfettered access in exchange for defense and financial assistance.

“There are tons of variations in terms of what is administered by the Interior Department,” said Alex Gray, the National Security Council chief of staff during the first Trump administration. “It’s not a one-size fits all and we have precedent for doing a lot of options.”

If he can’t buy Greenland, he could try to add more bases to snoop on nearby Russia and China. And if the Greenlanders agree — which they may not — he could find ways to exercise more authority on the island.

Here is what the incoming president could do to change the U.S. relationship with Greenland — and the barriers in his way.

Buy it

People in Trump’s orbit really are starting to think seriously about the negotiations that would lead to the island becoming a U.S. territory, Gray said, part of an effort to reorient American foreign policy toward the Western Hemisphere as China and Russia turn their eyes toward the region.

“I don’t think it’s out of the realm of possibility that he could do a direct purchase,” he said.

Gray did have to go pretty far back for a model. He pointed to Denmark’s 17th century purchase of St. Croix from France. The territory was purchased by the U.S. as part of a 1916 treaty and is now part of the Virgin Islands.

It’s not a completely new idea. The U.S., decades ago, offered to buy Greenland from Denmark, a long-secret plan that was revealed in the 1990s.

But even if Greenland could be sold, many Greenlanders question whether they would want to become part of the U.S. The island’s prime minister, who has called for independence from Denmark in the next decade, has said that Greenland is “not for sale and never will be for sale.”

And even Trump’s allies acknowledge that a negotiation over Greenland’s fate would be tricky because of the huge economic implications: Greenland has billions worth of unexplored minerals and hydrocarbons buried underneath its melting Arctic ice sheets.

On paper, Greenland has many of the powers of an independent nation already. It is a self-governing region of Denmark, giving the island widespread autonomy. This means it can elect its own leaders while Copenhagen handles its foreign policy and national defense.

“Denmark doesn’t claim to own it,” said Scott Anderson, a former State Department lawyer and national security expert. “I am quite confident that the government of Denmark, as we’ve seen them say things, doesn’t think it has the legal authority to sell Greenland to anyone.”

The U.S. hasn’t bought territory outright since snapping up the Philippines from Spain at the end of the 19th century. And international law has made it taboo — if not outright illegal — to buy, sell, or steal territory.

“If it’s not internationally recognized as valid and legitimate, then that’s going to cause all sorts of complications in actually benefiting from that relationship with Greenland,” Anderson said.

Take it

A military invasion, which Trump won’t rule out, would rile the world.

“That would be taking a page from the Saddam Hussein and Putin playbook,” said Brian Finucane, a former legal adviser at the State Department under three presidents. “This rhetoric from Trump is concerning because he is the incoming U.S. president and his words by themselves have foreign relations consequences.”

Strike a deal

Even if Greenland decides to become independent, the U.S. could still find a way to exercise more control over the island.

The U.S. has deals like that, called Compacts of Free Association, with Micronesia, the Marshall Islands, and Palau in the western Pacific islands.

Such a deal would give the U.S. exclusive military access and the right to determine which other nations can base their troops to Greenland. It could give the Pentagon a larger foothold in the region while pushing back on Chinese access to Arctic shipping routes as the Polar ice caps melt and Russia’s air and naval bases in Murmansk, on the nearby Kola Peninsula.

It’s similar to the relationship that Greenland has with Denmark, except that all three Pacific countries are independent nations. The Trump administration previously considered the idea of signing a COFA with Greenland during his first term.

Some former U.S. officials argue that the model could ease pressure on Copenhagen, since the island is about 50 times the size of Denmark. The country’s active-duty military is smaller than New York City’s police force.

“Denmark understands that Greenland is going to get independence,” said Gray. “They understand they don’t have the ability to defend Greenland post independence.”

But after Trump’s tacit threat of military action to take Greenland triggered warnings from both Germany and France, the U.S. even helping the island distance itself from Denmark could have diplomatic ramifications.

Flex some muscle

If Trump can’t buy Greenland, or rope it into a defense deal, the president-elect might be able to add more U.S. bases there.

The U.S. and NATO allies have significant gaps in surveillance coverage in parts of the Atlantic and Arctic Oceans. The U.S. could add more sophisticated sensors to add to the early warning radars that the Pentagon already has in place at Pituffik Space Base, on the northwestern tip of the island.

“Norway keeps an eye on it, we keep an eye on it,” said Jim Townsend, a former senior Pentagon official who worked on NATO and Arctic defense policy. “That fills a gap. That’s important.”

Gray, the former Trump administration official, said that preventing Russia and China from exploiting Greenland is in everyone’s interest.

“The Chinese are experts at exploiting these developing, lightly populated countries and using them for their own purposes,” he said. “[Denmark] understands that a Greenland that’s susceptible to coercion is not in their interest or our interest.”

Nahal Toosi contributed to this report.