Can Big City Mayors Survive Crime, Scandal And The New Trump Era?

These are perilous times for the chief executives of big blue cities.

Bay Area voters — irate over crime and homelessness — just sent the mayors of San Francisco and Oakland into premature retirement.

The first-term mayors of New York and Chicago are embroiled in controversies threatening their political futures, while Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass is being pilloried over her purported leadership failures during the city’s ongoing wildfire crisis.

And the imminent return of Donald Trump to the White House — and the antagonism he’s displayed toward the liberal policies of the country’s biggest cities — is creating additional political peril for mayors.

They’re desperately trying to figure out where to draw the line between cooperation and resistance with the incoming administration, particularly on the fraught issue of immigration enforcement.

There are at least 15 cities — the vast majority run by Democrats — with populations of more than 350,000 that will be holding mayoral contests this year.

Here’s a look at what are expected to be the most competitive and intriguing contests:

Cloud of Scandal

new york

New York City’s mayoral race stands to be even wilder than the one that preceded it in 2021, when Eric Adams came from behind with his public safety-focused message to win a free-for-all. That race featured the former NYPD captain pledging to carry a gun while in office and giving reporters a tour of his Brooklyn brownstone after POLITICO reported he did not appear to live there.

This time around, Adams is facing a federal criminal case that’s expected to go to trial in April, which means he’ll be defending himself in court during prime campaign season — an astonishing split screen that has not deterred the Democrat from running. His closest City Hall aides have largely been expelled from government amid corruption probes that could also mature in the heat of the race.

Add to that Adams’ bruising poll numbers and the $4.3 million in public matching funds he was denied on account of his criminal case and campaign bookkeeping irregularities, and it’s no wonder a field of challengers has emerged who are bent on denying him a second term.

At the top of that list, according to a recent poll, is former Gov. Andrew Cuomo, who’s been quietly hatching a comeback — though his unfavorable rating stood at 44 percent, second only to Adams’ sky-high unfavorability rating of 71 percent.

Cuomo presents the biggest threat to Adams not because of those numbers per se, as the race is still in its infancy, but because he is likely to be courting the same base of middle-class Black voters and Jewish New Yorkers concerned about Israel and its war in Gaza. Whoever can win those blocs will have the best shot at taking on the remaining field of candidates to the left.

Of that bunch, Brad Lander boasts the biggest platform, owing to his perch as the city comptroller. That gig has given him experience running a citywide campaign and comes with a team of auditors and policy wonks able to attack the Adams administration and propose new initiatives, all on official letterhead. While Lander has a long history of progressive policy positions that have included calls to defund the police, he appears to be tacking closer to the center and has proposed a plan to end street homelessness.

Lander’s predecessor as comptroller, Scott Stringer, is mounting another mayoral bid despite flaming out last time after decades-old allegations of sexual harassment sent his coalition of progressive backers running for other campaigns. But Stringer is an old hand at politicking, the only candidate to qualify for matching funds so far, and came in second to Cuomo in the recent poll, where Adams placed a distant fifth.

At the farthest reaches of the political spectrum is state Sen. Zohran Mamdani, a democratic socialist who has brought a lively energy to the campaign and is pledging to throw red meat to his base in the form of a rent freeze for rent stabilized apartments along with free child care and city buses.

Other wild cards abound. State Sen. Zellnor Myrie is banking on a pro-housing message in a city that has typically been averse to new construction. His colleague, Jessica Ramos, could have an inside track with the multiracial electorate in her part of Queens, including with the crucial Latino vote. And attorney James Walden, who is suing to run on the Independence Party line and would not be a factor in the Democratic primary, raised an enormous sum that puts his cash on hand at just under $1 million. (Joe Anuta)

oakland

Oakland City Hall and local government dysfunction have become practically synonymous over the last year.

Voters in November recalled former Mayor Sheng Thao, a campaign fueled by frustration over Oakland’s budget deficit of nearly $130 million, widespread homelessness and a gun violence epidemic. Thao was also hampered by a series of negative headlines, most notably an FBI raid on her house last summer.

Now, voters in the Bay Area city face more uncertainty as they prepare to elect a new mayor in an April 15 special election.

The contest has drawn a field of at least 15 candidates. But the race changed in an instant last week when former Democratic Rep. Barbara Lee, who represented Oakland in Congress for nearly three decades, entered the fray.

Lee said she’s running because the city needs a candidate who can unify residents, tackle the city’s budget crisis and improve street conditions. “They’ve said we are a city divided,” Lee said. “But let’s show them that we are one Oakland.”

Lee, whose lone opposition to the war in Afghanistan made her a national progressive icon, is widely expected to clear the field on the left. Local business groups have also started to align behind her.

But moderate activists and wealthy donors are eager to put a more centrist Democrat at the helm of City Hall — an effort to repeat the political shift underway across the Bay in San Francisco, where tech-funded groups are nudging the famously liberal city closer to the center.

Lee’s most formidable opponent is former City Council Member Loren Taylor, a comparatively moderate Democrat who narrowly lost the race for mayor in 2022. He has sharply criticized Lee’s progressive views on criminal justice.

“You can’t leave people vulnerable to predators because of an ideological position,” Taylor said.

But even some of Taylor’s allies have questioned whether moderate Democrats can take on a politician with Lee’s name recognition and national following. Oakland is considered California’s most progressive major city, which also complicates Taylor’s path — though Thao was a progressive and lost the recall election overwhelmingly. (Dustin Gardiner)

Tough reelection fights

Minneapolis

Nearly five years after the murder of George Floyd unleashed protests and civil unrest across the Twin Cities, Minneapolis is still struggling to recover.

While the murder rate plummeted across the U.S. in 2024, Minneapolis was the rare city that saw an uptick — and the number of killings remains far above pre-pandemic levels.

Last week, the city entered into a consent decree with the Department of Justice mandating policy changes within the Minneapolis Police Department, stemming from a yearslong investigation.

Incumbent Mayor Jacob Frey is running for a third term. Four years ago, he won by a double-digit margin. That wasn’t Frey’s only victory in 2021: He helped defeat a referendum that would have dismantled the police department, and successfully championed a change to the city’s charter that gives the mayor far more control over city agencies.

But Frey remains a divisive figure and is facing at least three formidable challengers: Minneapolis City Council Member Emily Koski, state Sen. Omar Fateh and the Rev. DeWayne Davis, the lead minister of Minneapolis’ Plymouth Congregational Church.

“The stakes for Minneapolis are awfully high,” said Jim Davnie, a former longtime Minneapolis state lawmaker and frequent Frey critic. “The city has really kind of ground to a halt in terms of advancing as a major metropolitan area.” (Paul Demko)

boston

Boston Mayor Michelle Wu made history in 2021 when she sailed to victory to become the first woman of color to be elected to the role in the city’s history.

Almost four years later, Wu is gearing up for a reelection fight — though an official announcement will have to wait. Wu, 39, just gave birth to her third child, a girl, on Monday.

But Wu has indicated she doesn’t plan to slow down. And with an electoral battle brewing, she might not have much of an opportunity to.

Josh Kraft, the son of billionaire business mogul Robert Kraft, owner of the New England Patriots, is widely expected to mount a challenge against Wu, though he has yet to officially launch a campaign.

Kraft, the president of the Patriots’ charitable arm, the New England Patriots Foundation, recently bought property in Boston and registered to vote there after living in nearby Chestnut Hill.

Toppling an incumbent mayor in Boston hasn’t been done in decades, and taking out Wu, a deft politician who has spent recent months locking up support from unions and local officials throughout the city, will be an uphill battle for any challenger. The city also boasts a plummeting murder rate under Wu’s tenure, earning a reputation as one of the safest cities in the country.

But Kraft could dip into his personal wealth to help even the playing field. And his yet-to-be-announced campaign may be bolstered by business interests looking for new, more pliant leadership in City Hall.

Some business leaders and developers, used to having the city’s chief executive on speed dial, have chafed at Wu’s leadership style, as well as some of the progressive policies she campaigned on, including her efforts to overhaul the city’s zoning code. (Kelly Garrity)

Open seats

detroit

Some of the nation’s biggest mayoral prizes feature open fields — and a number of rising Democratic and Republican stars are already jumping into the fray.

Three-term Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan’s decision to run for governor — controversially, as an independent instead of a Democrat — opens up the job of one of Michigan’s most powerful offices, and the field is expected to be crowded. The next leader of Detroit will have the opportunity to build on the legacy of Duggan, who took office as the city was declaring bankruptcy and helped lead a major economic turnaround for its downtown.

City Council President Mary Sheffield is aiming to become the city’s first woman mayor, and was the first to get into the race with a splashy launch party in December. Sheffield, the daughter of a famed civil rights activist, has broad name recognition and a sizable war chest. State House Speaker Joe Tate, who would be a formidable challenger, has formed an exploratory committee. Other potential contenders include Saunteel Jenkins, a former City Council president, and current Council Member Fred Durhal III. (Liz Crampton)

san antonio and others

In San Antonio, close to twenty candidates are clamoring for the chance to replace outgoing Mayor Ron Nirenberg, including former Texas Secretary of State Rolando Pablos and three City Council members. It’s the first time in 16 years that an incumbent is not seeking reelection, giving candidates the opportunity to turn the city in a new direction. While the race is nonpartisan, the leader of San Antonio historically aligns with Democrats — and the city’s status as a blue dot in a red state will factor into debates over who should become its next mayor.

New Orleans is also gearing up for an open mayoral contest, with incumbent LaToya Cantrell term-limited. City Council President Helena Moreno is the most high-profile candidate to announce a run so far. State Sen. Royce Duplessis, who was rumored to be in the mix, declined to join the race this week, citing a concern about his ability to fundraise. While Moreno is currently the front-runner, more candidates are expected to throw themselves in for consideration.

In Miami, as term-limited Republican incumbent Francis Suarez prepares to step aside, there will also be elections for at least three city council seats. That opens up the possibility that voters in one of Florida’s biggest cities will decide on a different political future. (Crampton)