Deportations, Housing And Abortion: The Biggest State Policy Fights Of 2025

State lawmakers and governors will be crucial in determining how sweeping the country’s policy makeover proves to be under President-elect Donald Trump's administration.

They’ll spend the coming months debating controversial changes on hot-button issues like immigration, AI, the affordable housing crunch and education vouchers.

Lawmakers in red states will be seeking every opportunity to grease the policy wheels and help deliver on the president-elect’s grand campaign promises, while their blue state counterparts will be looking for ways to put sand in the gears.

The end result is likely to be a further widening of the gap between how red states and blue states address the most controversial and consequential policy debates.

With Republicans taking complete control in Washington after sweeping the November elections, Congress will be eager to push through a far-reaching agenda aligned with Trump’s priorities. But with tiny congressional majorities — particularly in the notoriously fractious House — it’s likely that they’ll struggle to enact major changes.

That’s why state policymakers are likely to prove key. One party has total control in 38 out of 50 states — 23 held by Republicans; 16 by Democrats — and they often enjoy far larger legislative majorities than on Capitol Hill. That means they’re likely to have a much easier time enacting bold policy agendas.

Here’s a look at what are expected to be the most contentious issues facing state lawmakers across the country when they convene in the coming weeks:

Immigration

Republican governors are poised to play a big role in carrying out Trump’s immigration agenda. Trump has promised to deport millions of undocumented immigrants, starting on the first day of his presidency, and he’ll need the cooperation of governors to conduct a complicated and expensive law enforcement operation.

Nearly all of the nation’s Republican governors last month issued a joint statement that they are “eager” to work with the Trump administration on immigration, especially in targeting undocumented immigrants who have committed crimes. “We understand the direct threat these criminal illegal immigrants pose to public safety and our national security, and we will do everything in our power to assist in removing them from our communities,” the governors said.

Some governors, like Tennessee’s Bill Lee, are preparing to mobilize the National Guard to aid the U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement’s deportation efforts. State lawmakers can supplement those efforts by increasing funding for law enforcement focused on the border, and they can pass policies restricting the rights of undocumented immigrants, like forbidding them from receiving in-state tuition or driver’s licenses.

Democratic governors, however, are not as unified in their approach to Trump’s immigration agenda. Some governors, like California’s Gavin Newsom, have staked out their role as primary adversary to the president on issues like immigration. Newsom, a likely 2028 presidential contender, called a special session in December for lawmakers to “Trump-proof” the state, and they set aside $25 million for legal fees to respond to the incoming administration’s attacks on state policies.

Yet others have adopted hawkish rhetoric on immigration that dovetails with Trump’s mass deportation plan, like New York Gov. Kathy Hochul. Hochul has indicated New York will cooperate with ICE and is developing a list of “serious” crimes that would trigger deportations if they are committed by an illegal immigrant.

Expect to see big clashes between the Trump administration and leaders of sanctuary cities standing behind their laws protecting undocumented residents and forbidding local law enforcement from cooperating with federal immigration authorities. Trump border czar Tom Homan has threatened to eliminate funding for sanctuary states that stand in the way of deportations, and vowed to flood uncooperative cities with ICE agents. (Liz Crampton)

AI

State legislatures will again try to shape policy around artificial intelligence as Congress mostly steers clear of regulating the rapidly evolving technology. Last year, state lawmakers introduced more than 600 bills addressing the topic and have already filed more than 175 for consideration in 2025.

Nowhere will that be more apparent than in California — the birthplace of the biggest names in AI innovation — where the industry-friendly Newsom has been at odds with state lawmakers within his own Democratic Party about how aggressively to police the booming industry.

Newsom last year vetoed a sweeping AI safety bill, warning lawmakers against stymieing a sector that has helped bolster the state’s economy. That aligned him with leading Democrats in Washington, including Rep. Nancy Pelosi, but put him at odds with high-profile supporters of the bill like Elon Musk, who’s now playing an outsize role in the incoming Trump administration.

The debate is on track to continue: The bill’s author, state Sen. Scott Wiener — widely believed to have his eye on Pelosi’s San Francisco seat in the future — has said he plans to move forward on some form of AI safety legislation again this year, and at least two other state lawmakers already introduced bills targeting AI and deepfakes.

California will be closely watched, but other state legislators have also made waves, including in Connecticut. Lawmakers there will again attempt to pass their own ambitious rules after a similar push last year failed but inspired other states to act, like Colorado, with success.

Red state lawmakers are also starting to weigh in with their own visions: Texas state Rep. Giovanni Capriglione, a Republican, unveiled his own AI act just days before Christmas. It targets “high-risk” AI systems with new rules while promising a more “friendly environment” for innovation. (Tyler Katzenberger)

Housing

Soaring home and rent prices fueled by nationwide housing shortages continue to grip state and local officials. Homelessness spiked 18 percent in 2023, and the affordability crisis is resonating at a new level politically — even grabbing the attention of top Democrats at last year's DNC.

Housing, environmental and transit advocates have partnered with developers and officials of both parties to form coalitions in state capitals across the country to respond to the shortages rooted in strict zoning and land use rules that have made it difficult or impossible to permit additional units, pricing people out of cities and other desirable locations.

Vermont, New York, California and Utah are among the states that have addressed zoning issues typically handled at the local level in recent years — generating backlash from municipalities and counties, especially in the suburbs. Those states have moved to eliminate single-family zoning, allow more multi-unit housing and incentivize affordable housing and development around public transit hubs. That energy is set to continue in 2025.

Trump, though, said last year he will stop Democrats’ plans to “abolish the suburbs” and in 2020 laid out a vision for “preserving local decision-making” on housing.

But the fact that California and Montana, for instance, are pursuing a similar set of policies to boost production shows that the housing affordability issue has carved itself a uniquely bipartisan lane.

"This is going to be a housing session," said Alex Horowitz, project director of the Pew Charitable Trust’s housing policy initiative. "We are anticipating a wave of bills in state legislatures looking at housing affordability." (Jordan Wolman)

Abortion

Pregnant patients' ability to access abortions will depend even more on their zip code in 2025. The chasm between blue states with expanded abortion access and red states with restrictions is expected to grow even deeper, especially if Trump abides by his campaign promise not to pursue a national abortion ban.

Most blue states have taken action to codify and protect abortion rights in the nearly three years since Roe v. Wade was overturned. Some states, like California, may take steps to further establish themselves as safe havens where people can freely receive abortion care. Democratic-led states may also devote more resources to supporting clinics providing care, as those providers have seen a significant increase in out-of-state patients traveling from locations with abortion bans.

Republican-led states, however, are expanding their fight to restrict abortion access. One way they’re trying to achieve that is by making it difficult for pregnant people to obtain abortion pills. Conservative lawmakers will likely model those efforts on a Louisiana law enacted last year that reclassified two drugs used in medication abortions — mifepristone and misoprostol — as controlled substances requiring stricter storage and documentation requirements. Texas lawmakers have already introduced similar legislation.

In Tennessee, some lawmakers are backing a proposal that would ban mailing of abortion pills into the state and impose a $5 million fine on violators, a challenge to shield laws that protect doctors and providers who mail medications into states with abortion bans from liability.

States with abortion bans are also expected to pursue laws establishing fetal personhood, like in Oklahoma and Tennessee. Republicans may also explore placing restrictions on fertility treatments like IVF.

This year could also bring a rise of battles between red and blue states over abortion. Anti-abortion advocates, successful at restricting abortion in large swaths of the U.S., are expanding their cause to target access in blue states. Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton set up the first fight last month by suing a New York doctor accused of prescribing abortion pills to a Texas woman via telemedicine. (Crampton)

School vouchers

Legislative fights over school vouchers promise to stir up significant debates this year, particularly in Republican-controlled states that do not already have broad taxpayer-funded measures to subsidize private and religious education.

That includes Idaho, where Republican Gov. Brad Little proposed a $50 million school choice expansion plan on Monday during his annual budget address. Local teachers unions and education lobbyists say they expect Idaho lawmakers to file additional proposals this session.

Texas legislators are poised to debate a universal school voucher program this year, following Republican Gov. Greg Abbott’s scorched-earth campaign to oust GOP lawmakers who thwarted his top priority. In Tennessee, Lee and state legislative leaders have already reintroduced a school choice bill to provide thousands of students private education scholarships after a similar proposal floundered last year amid resistance from rural lawmakers.

More than 30 states have some kind of school choice program, including at least 13 that had so-called education savings account programs on their books by the middle of last year, according to a National Conference of State Legislatures accounting of one popular program type. Arizona set a new standard for its program in 2022 by making it available to any family in the state, regardless of their income; at least a dozen states now have a universal-eligibility program in place.

Former Arizona Republican Gov. Doug Ducey, who helped champion his home state’s massive voucher law, was the featured guest at a school choice policy forum hosted ahead of Little’s speech by a free-market think tank. But in a possible acknowledgment of deep opposition from unions and local school boards, Little suggested any Idaho program will need significant oversight to win his support.

“Any school choice measure I would consider must be done the Idaho way,” Little said Monday. “That means it is fair, responsible, transparent and accountable. It must prioritize the families that need it most, and it must not take away funds from public schools.” (Juan Perez Jr.)

Intoxicating hemp products

Both red and blue states are dealing with the proliferation of intoxicating hemp cannabinoids, a booming market that was created thanks to a loophole in the 2018 farm bill.

Congress has punted the farm bill for another year, meaning that any attempts to address the proliferation of intoxicating hemp will fall on state legislatures.

The biggest legislative battle is expected in Texas, home to one of the largest markets for hemp cannabinoids in the country. Unlike other top hemp-producing states like California and New York, Texas does not have a legal recreational marijuana market, nor does it have a comprehensive medical marijuana program — driving consumers to hemp cannabinoids.

Republican Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick put the industry on notice last month when he launched a legislative effort to ban all forms of consumable THC. Thousands of retailers across the state “sell products, including beverages, that have three to four times the THC content which might be found in marijuana purchased from a drug dealer,” Patrick said in a statement.

Hemp businesses, meanwhile, are vowing to push back — just like they did in Illinois earlier this week. Democratic Gov. JB Pritzker threw his weight behind a bill that would require intoxicating hemp products to be sold through regulated marijuana dispensaries. But opposition from hemp businesses during the lame-duck session successfully prevented the bill from getting a final vote on the House floor.

Similar legislative pushes are expected this year in states like Michigan, Missouri and Ohio. Hemp manufacturers, retailers and even alcohol distributors are banding together to push back against bills aimed at clamping down on intoxicating hemp.

"[They are] coming together to come up with a plan that works for everybody providing appropriate framework and guardrails,” said Christopher Lackner, president of the trade group Hemp Beverage Alliance. (Mona Zhang)

Budget deficits

States will be grappling with all these thorny policy issues while facing much tighter financial constraints. Massive infusions of federal cash during the pandemic — coupled with surprisingly robust tax revenues — led to an unprecedented surge in state coffers. State general fund revenues increased by more than 16 percent in both fiscal years 2021 and 2022 — the biggest bumps ever recorded — according to the National Association of State Budget Officers.

But that’s changed dramatically: Overall spending is expected to decrease by 0.3 percent in the current fiscal year.

In some states, big structural deficits loom just over the horizon. Washington state is looking at a $10 billion to $12 billion shortfall over the next four years. Democrats hold big majorities in both state legislative chambers, as well as the governor’s office, and are eyeing both tax hikes and spending reductions to address the budget woes.

“We're not going to cut our way out and we're going to need to make new investments,” said Democratic state Rep. Nicole Macri, vice chair of the Appropriations Committee, citing education as one area where they’re likely to consider more funding. “So we are talking about revenue options.”

Similarly, in Pennsylvania the annual deficit is projected to steadily grow from $4.5 billion in the next fiscal year to $6.7 billion four years down the road. And in Florida, costs are poised to rise faster than revenues over the next three years, with a projected budget shortfall of nearly $7 billion in fiscal year 2028.

“Signs of stress are not just popping up in states with chronic budget challenges,” noted Josh Goodman, a state budget expert at the Pew Charitable Trusts. “States with comparatively strong recent fiscal records face difficult years too.” (Paul Demko)