Donald Trump’s Immigration Moves May Be Helping This Progressive Mayor In The New Jersey Governor’s Race

Newark Mayor Ras Baraka is making a bet on progressivism in the race for governor of New Jersey. President Donald Trump seems to be helping his cause.

Baraka, the longtime mayor of New Jersey’s most populous city, is one of six candidates running for the Democratic nod in this year’s high-stakes race for governor. He is one of the most progressive elected Democrats in the nation — and is leaning into those liberal values and an anti-Trump messaging strategy in an attempt to stand out from the field. It could be paying off.

Baraka finished second in every county nominating convention so far, a sign of support among the most engaged Democrats. And one of the few public polls so far, released last week, showed the mayor had the highest favorability and name recognition among the half dozen candidates.

It’s an unexpected surge for Baraka ahead of the June primary, which has attracted some of the most influential and ambitious Democrats in the state and has widely been seen as anyone's game.

His repeated attacks on Trump and Trump’s policies — especially moves on immigration — appear to be buoying Baraka’s candidacy. And Baraka thinks that’s proof other members of his party are approaching the Trump era all wrong.

“I think that they’re playing into the national kind of sentiment, the Democratic sentiment that Trump has won and we need to placate him and move toward the middle,” Baraka said in an interview. “I think that’s wrong — a losing strategy. I think it’s a losing strategy in New Jersey in November, and it’s a losing strategy in the country during the midterms.”

While all of the Democratic candidates are making their arguments for how they will use the governor’s mansion to stand up to the Trump administration, none are caught in the whirlwind of the president’s early actions like Baraka is.

Late last month, Immigration and Customs Enforcement announced that it would reopen Delaney Hall, an immigrant detention facility in Newark owned by a private prison contractor that would be the first in the country to open under the new Trump administration. Baraka condemned the plan and asserted he will challenge the opening, citing the building’s city permits.

It is the latest instance in which the Trump administration has zeroed in on Newark — home to a diverse population — to implement immigration promises the president made during his campaign. In January, Baraka lambasted an ICE raid of a business in his city, where he said that three undocumented people were detained along with U.S. citizens and a military veteran.

Baraka continues to use that incident from earlier this year on the campaign trail as a way to tout his longstanding progressive values: “If you supported immigrants, why didn’t you come stand with me when they raided the place in Newark?” he asked his competitors at a candidate forum last weekend.

Baraka has been particularly outspoken when it comes to state-level immigration issues. He — along with other candidates — have called for the passage of a bill in Trenton to make permanent and expand limits between state and local cops and federal immigration authorities. And he has found himself at the center of the Trump administration’s immigration crackdown, forcefully rebuking immigration enforcement activity in his city in a way that has captured the attention of left-leaning groups.

“I think the silence of others is making him stand out,” said Amy Torres, the executive director of the left-leaning New Jersey Alliance for Immigrant Justice. “He is saying all the right things, he's doing all the right things in defense of his city as mayor. What he's saying as a candidate makes him stand out because everyone else is saying so little.”

If Baraka does emerge victorious in June, it won’t be just because of his response to Trump.

Baraka is a well-established Newark figure: He grew up in the city after the 1967 riots — which he has said was often discussed growing up — and is the son of Amiri Baraka, a famous poet who called the riots a "rebellion." Ras Baraka, who also wrote poetry and performed spoken word, went on to become a teacher and principal — and his classroom discussions appeared on Lauryn Hill’s debut “The Miseducation of Lauryn Hill” (Baraka also appeared on Hill’s group The Fugees’ “The Score” years earlier). He made several unsuccessful runs for local office until becoming a councilmember and then mayor in 2014.

Recent polling has shown that the mayor is also widely known across the state.

A Fairleigh Dickinson University survey conducted at the end of February and released last week found that Baraka had the highest name recognition and favorability among Democrats compared to his opponents.

When parsing out voters by ideological lean, the poll found that Baraka, Jersey City Mayor Steven Fulop and Rep. Mikie Sherrill had high favorability among self-described progressive voters, though Baraka was slightly ahead. Among self-described liberal Democrats, Sherrill had a higher favorability, followed by Baraka and Fulop.

Baraka’s campaign is running to the left on policy, proposing a universal basic income, public option for health care and raising New Jersey’s minimum wage — which is already among the highest in the nation, at $15.49 an hour.

Dan Cassino, executive director of the poll, noted in a statement that “this is not the race anyone was expecting a few months ago.”

“If the primary electorate skews left, that’s a big advantage” for Baraka, Cassino added. “If the electorate looks more like the Democratic Party as a whole, it looks better for Sherrill.”

When Baraka entered the race last year, he was widely viewed as a long shot running while bigger names with organizational backing, such as Sherrill and Rep. Josh Gottheimer, would claim front-runner status.

While Sherrill still is by most conventional measures the leading candidate for the nomination, this year’s governor’s race is wide open because of the fall of the so-called county line ballot design. That gave county party leaders inordinate influence by putting their preferred candidates on favored positions on the ballot — but without it, candidates are working in uncharted territory.

County conventions, which have undoubtedly lost their significance after the end of the county line, do not necessarily correlate with a candidate’s performance come the June primary, since some of the contenders are boycotting the events. But a good showing could be seen as a sign of momentum.

In the six conventions that Democrats have held so far, Baraka has finished in second place in all of them. Some of the conventions were closer than others, like in Hunterdon where he went to a runoff against Sherrill, and levels of participation among the candidates have varied. But he has solidified his standing as the runner-up in counties in North Jersey, where Sherrill has notched wins, and South Jersey, where former state Senate President Steve Sweeney claimed victories last weekend.

“So there goes the ‘I can't get votes out of Essex County’ thing, and there goes the ‘I can't get white voters’ thing,” Baraka said about his consistent second-place finishes.

Baraka’s campaign is leaning into those tempered expectations. In a recent release announcing a “six-figure per week” ad buy, the campaign said that the “significant investment in the race demonstrates what many have underestimated from the start — this campaign is resonating with voters across New Jersey and is built to last.”

“He’s alway been a better candidate than people gave him credit for,” said Democratic strategist Daniel Bryan, a former aide to Gov. Phil Murphy. “It shouldn’t be a surprise for anyone that he’s been doing so well.”

It’s November that could pose an issue. Some Democrats have raised concerns that Baraka is not as viable in the general election due to his left-leaning policies, especially as Republicans have gained ground in the state. Baraka, who has won three terms as Newark mayor in technically nonpartisan elections, has not run against a Republican in his previous races. And there are some vulnerabilities in his record that could be used against him once attacks in the race start flying, including allegations of campaign finance violations.

The gubernatorial race is not the first time Baraka has faced a challenge. During his run for mayor in 2014, he eked out a win after going against a well-financed candidate who had the backing of statewide power brokers.

“I was born an underdog,” Baraka said. “Every time we do this, we're gonna be the underdog. We don't have the money, we're not gonna have the party bosses. We don't have anything. We knew that when we got into this.”