Down But Not Out: Eric Adams Enters Reelection Year With A Narrow Path To Victory

NEW YORK — Few politicians in America face a tougher reelection than Eric Adams – New York City's mayor is battling bribery charges, a multi-million-dollar campaign hit, angry voters and the departure of scandal-scarred top aides.

Still, the enigmatic mayor maintains a narrow path to reelection, and in an exclusive interview with POLITICO, Adams laid out how he intends to go on the offensive in the coming weeks: He's going to demand changes to the state’s controversial bail reform laws and pointedly remind voters that his most well known possible challenger — former Gov. Andrew Cuomo — signed those reforms into law.

In the damaged Democrat’s bluntest warning yet to his rivals, Adams outlined the case he plans to make to voters for giving him a second term amid a mountain of troubles.

“People who are running — they're going to have to take claim for the stuff that they did when they were holding office. Who was there for the original bail reform? Who signed some of these procedures? You’re going to have to answer these questions,” Adams said, when asked how he would run against Cuomo in particular.

The ex-governor is contemplating a mayoral run as he eyes a political comeback after resigning in the face of sexual harassment charges that he denies. He would enter the race with high name recognition, a base of support and fundraising potential. He led the field in a poll of registered voters last fall.

Some candidates have begun spirited campaigns — like democratic socialist Zohran Mandani — and others have deep roots in high-turnout areas, like Scott Stringer, Brad Lander and Zellnor Myrie.

But it is Cuomo who threatens to weaken Adams’ pillars of political support. Both have won substantial votes from the city’s Black and Orthodox Jewish Democrats. Both appeal to moderates, including business and real estate executives who move more campaign money than votes.

Adams remains in good standing with two other crucial backers: unions and the New York Post. The right-leaning tabloid — whose ability to shape opinion on its news pages outweighs its editorial pull among Democrats — recently detailed its support for Adams, despite concerns with his leadership. Several union officials, granted anonymity to freely discuss political strategy, spoke positively about the mayor.

“No one else has really stepped up and created a major threat. So as hard as his path is, everyone else is as much of a mess right now,” said someone affiliated with one of the unions that endorsed Adams in 2021. “He’s done a lot of really good, pro-union things, and if he’s in the race it would be incredibly hard — if not maybe impossible — for the unions to turn their back on him.”

Al Sharpton, the civil rights leader and MSNBC host, said Black voters still support Adams despite polls showing an erosion of Black and Latino backing.

“Eric has challenges. He still has a core base in the Black community,” Sharpton said, referencing the relatively warm reception the mayor received at Sharpton’s Harlem-based National Action Network while handing out food on Christmas. “They were basically positive, but I think they feel he has a hard hill to climb.”

“His disadvantage is these charges; his advantage is that no one has emerged,” Sharpton added.

But he quickly warned that a pardon from President-elect Donald Trump – a favor the mayor has not ruled out accepting – would prove damaging to Adams in a primary.

“The flirting with Trump is not helpful for him in the Black community,” he said of Adams’ kid gloves approach to the controversial GOP politician who has said he’d consider pardoning the mayor. “If I was between a rock and a hard place and the only one that could deliver me is Donald Trump I would be preparing for my bye-bye.”

Federal prosecutors in September indicted Adams in a bribery scheme for which he’s set to stand trial in April — just two months before voters head to the polls. The charges and his campaign’s handling of questionable donations have cost him about $4 million in taxpayer-funded campaign dollars, forcing him to continue fundraising or rely on independent expenditures to make up the difference.

Despite his troubles, Adams is a talented communicator, able to outshine most rivals gearing up to challenge him in the June primary. No incumbent has lost the mayoralty since Rudy Giuliani defeated David Dinkins in 1993, and Adams is using his perch to promote popular policies, like cutting taxes for retail workers. He’s more conservative than most New York City Democrats who vote in off-cycle primaries, but he’s the only declared candidate with a background in crime — a leading concern for voters.

To that end, Adams said he will push state lawmakers this legislative session for changes to laws governing bail, discovery and how to manage people with mental illness.

“There are those in the city who have made up their mind — we are going to continue to commit crimes no matter what you say. And we keep allowing them to do it,” Adams said, pitching his case for tightening state laws. “The judges have to get on board, our lawmakers have to get on board.”

“It’s amazing that crime has not gone even higher, based on how many repeated offenders keep coming out, over and over and over again,” he added. Last year he highlighted recidivism as a reason for stubborn crime rates in the city.

Adams faced resistance when pushing state lawmakers to undo some of their 2019 bail reforms, though they eventually agreed to some changes in 2023. And while Gov. Kathy Hochul is aligned with Adams on the issue, both are in politically weakened positions heading into Albany’s annual legislative session this month.

Adams conceded that voters’ concerns over crime — bolstered by the recent fatal burning of a woman riding a city subway — undermine his record on his signature issue. In poll after poll, New Yorkers are expressing dissatisfaction with how he and other incumbents are managing public safety.

To that end, he said he would continue making clear that he believes police officers are hobbled by state laws.

He disputed that voters will take into account the mushrooming chaos in the upper ranks of the NYPD, with the recent ouster of the highest ranking uniformed officer amid allegations of sexual assault and overtime manipulation.

“Everyday New Yorkers could care less about Maddrey,” Adams said of the recently departed chief of department, Jeffrey Maddrey, whose home was raided by federal officials. “All they want to know, when I call 911, is there a cop showing up.” He quickly added, “of course they don’t want to hear about an incident within the NYPD,” but said that top-tier corruption is not a leading concern.

Adams is poised to announce a drop in crime Monday, bolstered by a reduction in shootings, murders and incidents on subways in 2024. Felony assaults during that period were up, police statistics show.

It will mark the beginning of his reelection, for which he told POLITICO he’s following his 2021 mantra — “stay focused, no distractions and grind” — and emphasizing the parts of his record he feels go unnoticed: reduced unemployment for Black New Yorkers, expansion of broadband for public housing residents, retiring medical debt.

“I have to articulate to New Yorkers how these ideas that are being thrown out – that no one should go to jail, Rikers should be closed, that no one should have to pay their rent, no one should pay for the subway system — these are not real philosophies and they’re not real policies,” he said, slightly exaggerating some of his rivals' platforms. “Many people don’t know how to govern a city this complex.”

And he had another shot for his opponents: “No one’s going to out-work me. They’re going to be home in their pajamas when I’m going to be on my first wind.”

Stringer, a longtime politician from Manhattan and the only challenger yet cleared to receive campaign matching funds, offered a different take.

“I’m hearing from people all over the city that they want fundamental change in their governance. They are tired of a corrupt administration that failed on doing the basic policy work to run this government,” he said. “We have corruption at the highest levels. … This is at the top echelon at the NYPD, Eric Adams’ NYPD. And what do we get for it? We get a rolling crime scene on the subways and on the streets.”

“That is a function of a government that was never about doing the right thing, that was about doing the small bore things that benefitted the corrupt few,” he added.

Whether the political case against Adams is strong enough remains to be seen.

“I think that anybody that counts Eric out is gambling wrong,” Sharpton said. “I would never count him out, but I would say he has some hills to climb. He has bigger hills than he has ever had to climb.”

Adams addressed those challenges, as he often does, in deeply personal terms.

“Mommy never surrendered,” he said, displaying a bracelet embedded with a small picture of his late mother. “I heard her in my ear those two weeks (following the indictment.) … I just heard her voice. ‘Son, you’re going to fight.’”