Europe Is Cautiously Optimistic About Trump’s Ukraine Comments
Donald Trump wasted no time in rattling Europeans’ nerves over threats of taking Greenland and opening trade wars. But there’s a surprising case in which Europe is cautiously optimistic: Ukraine.
Trump’s threat to Russian President Vladimir Putin on Wednesday to impose new tariffs and sanctions on Moscow if it didn’t reach a deal to stop the war sent a welcome message to European allies and other Ukraine supporters.
And it is being read more broadly by Ukraine supporters as evidence that he understands the stakes of the war as they do, and will not abandon Ukraine — or NATO allies — in his coming dealings with Putin.
“The President Trump that I served alongside wants nothing to do with the perception of weakness. Nothing,” former Vice President Mike Pence told a small group of reporters on Friday. Pence didn’t say how recently he had spoken with Trump.
“If Putin thinks that he can roll the president into a position where President Trump would look like he got rolled by Russia, he's got another thing coming,” he added. Some of it may be wishful thinking among Ukraine’s defenders who have feared Trump’s return would allow Russia to advance. But there are other early signs that have given Ukrainians and European allies glimmers of optimism: Trump stacked his Cabinet with prominent Russia hawks such as national security adviser Mike Waltz and Secretary of State Marco Rubio. He’s launched a new push to boost NATO’s defense spending benchmarks to 5 percent of GDP, and some of Trump’s Republican allies on Capitol Hill remain staunchly pro-Ukraine.
“I would be lying if we say we are not nervous” about Trump’s return, said a European ambassador who was granted anonymity to speak candidly. “We are preparing for a lot of headaches, but one area where I am going to risk being cautiously optimistic on is Ukraine and NATO.”
Other pro-Ukraine Republicans point to the fact that in 2019, Trump walked away from a grand deal on nuclear issues with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un despite all the hype and pageantry swirling around the historic summit. He could do the same in negotiations with Putin over Ukraine.
“He gets the stakes with Putin,” said one administration official, granted anonymity to discuss matters candidly. “He knows a bad deal when he sees one and can walk away again.”
One other advantage that administration insiders point to: The “Russiagate” scandal that clouded his first administration over the role Moscow covertly played in trying to help his election is decidedly in the rearview mirror in their view.
“He doesn’t have this extra Russiagate baggage clouding all his messaging and posturing this time around,” said another incoming administration official. “And say what you want about his methods, but do you really think he wants to be known in the history books as ‘the man who lost Ukraine?’”
The war has also shifted the consensus in Europe toward Trump’s view that NATO members must spend more on their own defense. Former Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, who attended the pre-inauguration fireworks reception at Trump’s Washington-area club, and several others have credited him with having been right in 2018 when he demanded the alliance move more quickly to reach the benchmark agreed to in 2014 that member nations spend 2 percent of GDP on defense. And his calls for a new 5 percent threshold have not generated broad public resistance, even though many privately acknowledge few NATO countries are positioned to reach it any time soon.
A person familiar with Trump’s thinking on Ukraine who was granted anonymity to speak candidly said that the president’s initial comments about ending the war should be taken seriously. His efforts to exert public pressure on Putin, to create leverage in a negotiation, comport with his long-standing interest in playing a decisive role in any dealmaking, the person said.
Still, this dose of cautious optimism goes only so far. Tariffs and sanctions are a far cry from the money and weapons the Biden administration sent to support Ukraine. Trump has unnerved European allies with his fixation on Greenland, and his and his allies’ open support for far-right political parties in Europe, many of which have links or an affinity toward Putin. “Greenland and interference in UK politics and the German elections is highly concerning,” said an EU official, who acknowledged that his initial statements on Russia and the war in Ukraine were “somewhat promising.”
And Trump’s unpredictability is already causing headaches across the political aisle, as Democratic lawmakers fume over the president’s vows for potentially costly trade wars and fiery calls with allied leaders in Denmark over Greenland. “I don’t yet know how Trump’s Russia policy could be worse, but it’s Trump and he’s so unpredictable and petty, so it could always be worse,” said Rep. Sara Jacobs (D-Calif.). “Let’s not pretend he conducts foreign policy in any normal way.”
Then there’s the fact that if Trump is stacking some corners of his team with Russia hawks, he’s filling other corners with skeptics of continuing to send aid to Ukraine. The most notable example is Vice President JD Vance, who as senator railed against continued U.S. military support for Ukraine as he argued Washington should marshall all its military resources to confront China. Pence downplayed the significance of Vance’s views on Ukraine. “Yes, he was the author of the legislation to cut off all funding to Ukraine. But I would expect that he will yield to President Trump's views on all these matters,” Pence said.
Other analysts believe Trump, unlike former President Joe Biden, doesn’t view the war as a major threat to global democracy, which increases the risks he settles for a bad deal with Putin. One pointed to his comments last week in an interview with Fox News Channel’s Sean Hannity: Trump criticized Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, whose country was invaded, for allowing the war to occur and reiterated his frustrations about the carnage on both sides. “He doesn’t really care about Ukraine—not in the way Biden did, or claimed to. He certainly doesn’t view this war as existential or see it as a broader assault on democracy,” said Rachel Rizzo, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council think tank.
“When have we ever heard Trump talk about protecting democracy? That’s right, we haven’t. That’s not a lens through which he views this war; it never has been,” she added. “He sees it as a regional annoyance that he has to deal with, and he wants to end it quickly.”
European officials also fear any deal with Putin that ceases hostilities in Ukraine will only give Putin time to rearm and regroup his war-weary army to launch fresh attacks years later. “Trump also has to focus not just on what to give to Putin, but what to give to Zelenskyy, including, first and foremost, effective, lasting security guarantees,” said Michael McFaul, a former U.S. ambassador to Russia. “Just placating Putin will not produce peace.”