How Trump Could Reshape New Jersey’s Gop Primary For Governor

Shortly before holding a May rally on the Jersey Shore, Donald Trump called into a local talk radio station to chat with conservative talk show host Bill Spadea. He didn’t hesitate to weigh in on state politics.

“I think he made some pretty big mistakes. You know who I’m talking about,” Trump said of Jack Ciattarelli, a Republican who came within three points of ousting Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy in 2021. “This guy never came to ask for my support. And you know what? When MAGA sees that, they don’t like it and they didn’t vote for him.”

The idea that a candidate in New Jersey — a deep-blue state where Democrats far outnumber Republicans — would seek Trump’s support in a general election seemed like political malpractice at the time. But then Trump came within six points of beating Kamala Harris in New Jersey this month, and everything seemed to change for the GOP here.

Now, with Ciattarelli running for governor again and Spadea jumping in as his biggest rival, the race is on to see who can win Trump's backing ahead of the June primary. They’ll face a pro-MAGA former state senator and an anti-Trump moderate state senator in a primary that’s likely to be a free-for-all following the collapse of the state’s “county line” balloting system, which gave advantage to candidates backed by local party leaders.

Support from establishment Republicans will matter in the race even without the county line, political observers in the state say. But with the elimination of the influential ballot design and with Trump’s grip over the GOP, the president-elect could play kingmaker in the primary — and coming across as an authentic Trump supporter will be key.

“They believe Donald Trump is one of the only politicians they can trust to represent their interests,” Matt Rooney, who runs a popular conservative blog on New Jersey politics, said of the MAGA base. “So if you’re working against the one person they trust, necessarily that’s going to make them suspicious of a candidate.”

Support for Trump has been an early theme in the primary race.

The Spadea campaign recently released an ad of prior comments Ciattarelli made critical of Trump during his 2016 run — with artificial intelligence replicating Ciattarelli’s voice to animate the statements he made in press interviews and statements. Ciattarelli is urging the state to renew liquor licenses at Trump’s New Jersey golf courses even as they could be revoked due to Trump being a convicted felon. And former state Sen. Ed Durr — a trucker who upended state politics when he beat the state Senate president in an upset election in 2021 — posted on X that he is “more MAGA now than ever.”

New Jersey and Virginia are the only two states to hold gubernatorial elections next year, making them key barometers for the national mood during the start of a new presidential term. Historically, New Jersey voters are much more open to electing a Republican governor than a Republican for federal statewide offices. But Democrats still have a 900,000-voter registration advantage and more support from public sector unions, so successful GOP candidates typically moderate their views to appeal to a wider swath of the electorate.

New Jersey Republicans have eschewed a Trump endorsement in the past. In the state’s 2024 GOP primary for U.S. Senate, the Trump-endorsed candidate lost to a competing Republican who had the majority of the state’s party establishment. But New Jersey Republicans still had the county line ballot design in place at the time in most counties. A new ballot design is expected for the 2025 primary, with state lawmakers mulling what it should look like.

Trump’s endorsement, already highly sought after in other Republican primary contests around the country, could make or break the GOP primary for governor. And Spadea, who has Trump's 2020 campaign manager Bill Stepien as a campaign consultant, would at first glance appear to be a favorite for it. Spadea, who has the drive time slot on New Jersey’s biggest radio station, has long used his powerful microphone to praise Trump while repeating his lies about widespread fraud in the 2020 election and other pro-Trump conspiracy theories. When Trump called in to Spadea’s show, he said the radio host “had my back from the beginning.”

Despite Trump’s comments, Ciattarelli’s camp also has links to Trump. A pro-Ciattarelli super PAC called “Kitchen Table Conservatives” — run by former Trump adviser Kellyanne Conway and Katie Miller, Vice President Mike Pence’s former press secretary — has combed through Spadea’s radio program to find statements he made critical of Trump. Ciattarelli also attended a “Stop the Steal” rally after Trump lost reelection, although he’s said he didn’t know the reason for the event.

Spadea can’t claim to be unwavering in his support for Trump. In 2021, Spadea said Trump should not run for president again and suggested there should be “new blood” like Govs. Ron DeSantis and Kristi Noem. In one social media post in 2022, Spadea said Trump’s “time has passed” and that it was time to “move on.”

“Trump wasn’t aware of how Spadea attacked him so much. There’s these videos where he called him a failure, said it was time to move on, time to get somebody else to run. Those are things Trump does not like,” said one pro-Ciattarelli Republican with ties to Trump’s world and was granted anonymity to discuss a sensitive topic.

Pro-Ciattarelli Republicans plan to bring those remarks to Trump’s attention while also making the case that Ciattarelli, not Spadea, could actually win the general election.

“There’s a massive file of really foolish and silly things that Spadea has said,” the Republican said. “They’re toxic in a general election. Some could say Trump has said some of those things too, but he’s not Trump.”

The Spadea campaign provided POLITICO with a statement from Ocean County GOP Chair George Gilmore — who was pardoned by Trump after being convicted on tax changes and has been a consultant to a PAC run by Spadea — hitting Ciattarelli on past anti-Trump comments. When Trump first ran for president in 2016, Ciattarelli called him a “charlatan” and said Trump should consider dropping out of the race.

“While Jack has been trashing Trump, Bill Spadea has consistently supported President Trump from the beginning,” Gilmore said. “Like Trump, Bill is an outsider who says what’s on his mind — and that scares the crap out of scripted, career politicians like Jack Ciattarelli.”

The Ciattarelli campaign sent POLITICO a statement from Cape May County GOP Chair Michael J. Donohue — a Ciattarelli ally — saying Spadea “abandoned Trump” when he said Trump should not run again following his 2020 loss.

“Spadea wants to wrap himself in a MAGA flag and try to fool President Trump and Trump voters into believing that he has been with us all along. It’s a lie,” Donohue said. “... Jack has been criss-crossing the state and offering his unequivocal support for President Trump, including appearing at campaign events all over New Jersey rallying support for the President and local Republicans.”

Ciattarelli endorsed Trump for president in 2024 after Trump swept contests during Super Tuesday. He donated to former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie for president in 2023.

Traditionally, moderate Republicans have won statewide in New Jersey like former GOP Govs. Christine Todd Whitman and Chris Christie. Spadea does not fit that mold, although Democrats are not ruling anything out with Harris’ narrower win in the Garden State.

Democratic State Sen. Vin Gopal, who has a relationship with Spadea, said that Spadea could be “a very serious candidate” based on Trump’s performance in New Jersey in the presidential race, coupled with the fact that Democrats have not won three straight terms for governor since the early 1960s.

“I think all of that could be a perfect storm if Democrats don't hone in on their message,” he said. Democrats, Gopal said, need to focus on issues like affordability, public safety and illegal immigration.

Another candidate in the Republican primary, Durr, has also run as an ardent Trump supporter. Durr, a trucker who served two years in the state Senate, said in an interview with POLITICO that he would seek a Trump endorsement and was “aligned” with the president-elect. But he also questioned if it would make or break a candidacy in the Republican primary.

“I don't know if it necessarily guarantees victory, but I think it would definitely help any candidate who was to receive it if it was prior to the primary,” Durr said. “I tend to doubt that Trump will weigh in in the primary. … but it would be great if he did and it was on my side.”

Durr said he plans to stay in the race “unless President Trump came to me personally and asked me to get out of the race.”

State Sen. Jon Bramnick, who’s also running for governor in 2025, is widely seen as a long shot in the Republican primary because he’s unabashedly anti-Trump (earlier this year, Bramnick said he would drop out of the race if Trump won New Jersey).

But as close as Trump came in New Jersey, Bramnick said the fact that he’s lost the state three times, and that statewide candidates who have previously embraced him also lost, shows there’s still just one type of Republican that can win statewide: A “traditional” moderate, fiscally-conservative Republican.

“My message hasn’t changed at all, and it’s proven by the fact that even in this environment, Democrats win the statewide races. So if you want to continue down that road, the other candidates are going to lose,” Bramnick said.

But Trump’s victory has narrowed Bramnick’s path to the nomination, GOP party leaders from Bramnick’s home county said.

“I think the senator has to take a look in the mirror and say ‘is there really a pathway for me?’ I think it's very doubtful there is,” said Joe Sarno, the treasurer of the Union County Republican Committee, speaking on behalf of the county party. “My question is, why are you still in the race when you know the Republican party is more aligned with Trump than ever?”