Marco Rubio Isn't Likely To Last Long As Secretary Of State

Congratulations, Marco Rubio! You’ll soon be secretary of State.

Condolences, too. You’re not likely to last long in the job.

Unlike many of President-elect Donald Trump’s nominees, Rubio is a shoo-in for Senate confirmation, having already nabbed some Democratic support. U.S. diplomats and foreign officials, too, view the GOP senator from Florida as a knowledgeable, not-insane, well-behaved person with whom they can engage.

Rubio’s committee hearing is set for Wednesday and he’s expected to be one of the first Trump nominees to take up his post.

But he’ll be lucky to last a year at Foggy Bottom. Rubio already is being undermined — through push-back from Trump’s MAGA base, the naming of other Trump appointees with overlapping portfolios as well as the essentially weak nature of the position he’s inheriting. In my conversations with about a dozen current and former U.S. and foreign officials, even people who want him to succeed said they thought he might last two years max. Others said less than a year.

A Rubio departure could mean fewer restraints on Trump’s already unorthodox foreign policy, further rattling America’s global allies. To last beyond the estimates above, Rubio may need to put up with a lot of abuse and take a backseat on some high-profile issues.

“Rubio will be fairly hamstrung and will feel sidelined and frustrated,” one foreign diplomat predicted to me, having been granted anonymity, like others, to be candid about the sensitive internal politics of the Trump team. “If he is surly or complains, the humiliation will escalate and then he will be fired. If he sucks it up, takes the humiliation and smiles through gritted teeth, he will survive until someone else whispers in Trump’s ear and angles for his job.”

How tough is it for the would-be chief diplomat? The minute Trump’s choice of Rubio leaked, hardline MAGA types rushed to say it wasn’t a done deal, underscoring the suspicions many in Trump’s base have toward Rubio, whom they see as too hawkish and interventionist.

Rubio’s space has shrunk further since. The president-elect has named a raft of special envoys whose jobs seem to overlap with State Department posts — setting up competition that could dwarf that of previous administrations. Some may set up shop in the White House, meaning they’ll have more direct access to Trump. One is Richard Grenell, who is beloved by the MAGA crowd but deeply alarms traditional U.S. diplomats. Grenell has long wanted to be secretary of State and some predict he’ll eventually replace Rubio; for now, he’s settling for “presidential envoy for special missions,” a job that can mean just about anything. Trump also selected Tammy Bruce as the State Department’s spokesperson; she’s previously trashed Rubio.

Rubio has to handle these other aides carefully. It won’t be easy. “Do you think Marco is going to tell Ric Grenell when he can go see the president? Of course not,” one former Trump administration official mused.

There are other realities that work against Rubio. He and Trump were bitter rivals who exchanged memorable insults in the 2016 presidential race. While they long ago made up and Rubio has since aligned himself more with Trump’s views, the odds are high that the two will differ on policy. For example, Rubio has a long history of support for human rights causes; Trump is less interested.

There’s plenty to do in the foreign policy space, even if there are special envoys roaming around. Rubio is especially passionate about issues in Latin America and the Indo-Pacific (read: China). But Trump is the uber-envoy, and he tends to carve his own path in foreign policy. It will be fascinating to watch Rubio dance around questions this week about whether the United States should invade Greenland and Panama.

I asked Rubio’s aides for comment on these and other challenges Rubio will face. Dan Holler, a spokesperson, offered this: “President Trump has an ambitious foreign policy agenda that will put Americans first and correct the failures of the past four years. No one dedicated to carrying out the president’s historic mandate has time for silly games or gossip.”

Despite the exalted status the title “secretary of State” carries, running the State Department can be more a weakness than a strength in any administration.

Trump and his acolytes view the department’s thousands of career diplomats as key figures resisting his agenda — globalists who don’t believe in America First. (Trump once called it the “Deep State Department.”) So initiatives that originate from the Foreign Service are unlikely to be prioritized.

One former Biden administration official hypothesized that Trump is fine with putting Rubio in Foggy Bottom — for now — because he “doesn’t see any role for the State Department in making foreign policy.”

If Rubio comes across as too protective of U.S. diplomats, that could damage his standing at the White House and the broader MAGA establishment. But if he treats his staff badly, that will sink morale in the building he runs, leading to annoying management challenges.

The former Trump administration official said Rubio must find a way to treat State Department employees with respect while making it clear that they work for the White House, not the other way around. That means the department will have to suck it up if many more jobs than normal are given to political appointees instead of career diplomats.

“He can be their advocate, but he can’t be captured by them,” the former official said.

The department’s influence has been eroding for decades, often because the leaner, faster White House-based National Security Council and the better-funded Pentagon tend to shove it aside. Under Biden, for example, Secretary of State Antony Blinken himself has been looped in on decisions related to fighting in the Middle East, but his department’s bureau that deals with that region has largely been frozen out, multiple current and former U.S. diplomats have told me and my colleagues.

How Rubio projects strength as America’s chief diplomat could depend on his relationship with GOP Rep. Mike Waltz, a fellow Floridian Trump has chosen to serve as his national security adviser in the White House.

I’m told the pair get along. “Waltz and Rubio have a Venn diagram that’s almost a circle,” a Trump transition official familiar with both men said.

That’s nice. I’ll check again in a few months.

Whether Rubio has his eye on the presidency could also affect how long he sticks around at State.

If he wants the Oval Office, the odds are higher that he will leave before Trump’s four years are up. Secretaries of State generally avoid dabbling in U.S. politics — the idea is that the country’s top diplomat needs to represent all Americans. Rubio will, then, need time to reenter the political fray and build a campaign.

But if he’s determined to last all four years, the best strategy may be to take the punches from his internal rivals, suffer through whatever insults Trump lobs at him, stick to the lanes that are open, and simply let the State Department fade into irrelevance.

“To be successful, you have to have no ego working for Donald Trump,” the former Trump official said. “You have to be willing to subordinate a lot of the traditional prerogatives that these jobs come with.”

It’s a strange formula, isn’t it? To succeed, you must diminish yourself.

And it still may not work.

Trump’s first secretary of State, Rex Tillerson, shunned publicity and put up with a lot of indignities from the president. The former ExxonMobil chief’s case wasn’t helped by reports that he’d called Trump a “fucking moron” or those about his poor management decisions. But publicly he praised Trump, took the lumps and soldiered on.

Some diplomats set up a betting pool on how long he’d last. Their over/under was a year. Tillerson lasted a month and a half longer than that before Trump dumped him.

I suspect Rubio will outlast Tillerson. After that, his odds get much worse.