Market Crashes, Deadly Viruses And Secret Nukes: Wild Scenarios For 2025

2024 often felt manic, with assassination attempts on Donald Trump, war in the Middle East and the implosion of Joe Biden’s presidential campaign. But there’s no reason to think 2025 will be any calmer.

That’s not just because Trump is likely to preside over a volatile second term in the White House. Based on his first term, that is to be expected. But there will also, undoubtedly, be unexpected shocks that no one can predict in advance.

So we asked an array of thinkers — futurists, scientists, foreign policy analysts and others — to lay out some of the possible “Black Swan” events that could await us in the new year: What are the unpredictable, unlikely episodes that aren’t yet on the radar but would completely upend American life as we know it?

Our experts floated all sorts of catastrophes, from the threat of AI to deadly epidemics, but they also raised the notion of progress, including in some surprising global hotspots.

The following scenarios may or may not take place in 2025, but they shouldn’t immediately be dismissed. When we undertook this exercise last year, a number of predictions proved eerily prescient.

‘The Largest Cyberattack in History’

BY GARY MARCUS

Gary Marcus’ most recent book, Taming Silicon Valley, was one of The New Yorker’s recommended books in 2024.

2025 could easily see the largest cyberattack in history, taking down, at least for a little while, some sizeable piece of the world’s infrastructure, whether for deliberate ransom or to manipulate people to make money off a short on global markets. Cybercrime is already a huge, multi-trillion dollar problem, and one that most victims don’t like to talk about. It is said to be bigger than the entire global drug trade. Four things could make it much worse in 2025.

First, generative AI, rising in popularity and declining in price, is a perfect tool for cyberattackers. Although it is unreliable and prone to hallucinations, it is terrific at making plausible sounding text (e.g., phishing attacks to trick people into revealing credentials) and deepfaked videos at virtually zero cost, allowing attackers to broaden their attacks. Already, a cybercrew bilked a Hong Kong bank out of $25 million.

Second, large language models are notoriously susceptible to jailbreaking and things like “prompt-injection attacks,” for which no known solution exists.

Third, generative AI tools are increasingly being used to create code; in some cases those coders don’t fully understand the code written, and the autogenerated code has already been shown in some cases to introduce new security holes.

Finally, in the midst of all this, the new U.S. administration seems determined to deregulate as much as possible, slashing costs and even publicly shaming employees. Federal employees who do their jobs may be frightened, and many will be tempted to look elsewhere; enforcement and investigations will almost certainly decline in both quality and quantity, leaving the world quite vulnerable to ever more audacious attacks.

‘A Secret Deal to Stop Iran From Developing Nuclear Weapons’

BY MATHEW BURROWS

Mathew Burrows is the Counselor to Stimson’s Executive Office and Program Lead of the Stimson Center’s Strategic Foresight Hub. He was formerly Counselor in the National Intelligence Council.    

Russia doesn’t want a nuclear-armed Iran any more than the United States. Russia tried to help Joe Biden revive the international nuclear deal by discussing with Tehran an interim agreement involving limited sanctions relief in return for some restrictions on its nuclear program. Iran rejected it and a month later Russian troops poured into Ukraine.

Russia is now more in bed with Iran, dependent on it for drones in its Ukraine war. With the Assad dynasty’s downfall, Vladimir Putin is being criticized at home for Russia’s declining influence in the Middle East. A U.S.-backed attack on Iran would show how little power Russia has.

Donald Trump is also in a bind. His Republican allies are out for blood and are goading him to help with an Israeli attack to prevent Tehran from going nuclear. And yet Trump has been warned against action by his good friend Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, who doesn’t want a nuclear Iran but fears Iranian retaliation against Saudi oil facilities in case of an Israeli attack. For Trump, that would mean soaring energy prices.

Late one night, Putin calls Trump on a private, secure line, telling him he has a secret deal to stop Iran from developing nuclear weapons. Putin has convinced Iran to agree to a 5-year pause on any nuclear weaponization so long as Trump dissuades Israel from attacking. The new U.S. president succeeds in persuading Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu by passing along MBS’ promise to normalize ties with Israel on condition that he stand down on an Iranian attack. What Trump doesn’t know is that Putin has had to agree to send Tehran advanced air defense arms in a year just in case of an Israeli attack.

‘Secessionists Are on the March’

BY AMY ZALMAN

Amy Zalman is a strategist and futurist. She has previously served as the CEO of the World Future Society and the chair of information integration at the U.S. National War College.

Midway through his first year in office, President Donald Trump accedes to the request of the Greater Idaho movement leadership to support the goal of moving 15 counties from Oregon to Idaho. The presidential nod of approval — handed out casually at the end of a press conference — thrills Oregonians from the eastern, rural part of the state who are eager to get out from under the legislative authority of the urban, progressive values that dominate in the state’s western cities.

As Trump’s off-the-cuff comment makes its way from Greater Idaho leadership into the right-wing social media grapevine and, from there, the national news mainstream, it becomes a rallying cry for sympathetic national legislators (and a handy diversionary tactic from the thick complications of foreign policy, trade and the national economy), and a point of alarm for the many Americans who have never heard of secessionist movements or, at least, have never taken the possibility seriously. But all of a sudden, secessionists are on the march.With this new legitimacy in hand, the leaders of other would-be secessionist movements see public rallies as the next logical move. Within weeks, New State or No State! protests appear in state capitals, sponsored by old groups and new ones hoping to split off from their state, or in the case of Texas and California, from the whole country. The New Illinois hope for an Illinois without Chicago, and the Weld County Coloradans yearn to become Weld County, Wyoming. It is not long before counter ralliers, wearing multicolored All States, Every State (including D.C. and P.R.!) signs and buttons, also show up around the perimeters of the ever more frequent gatherings.By autumn, emboldened — and armed — white supremacist groups and vigilante self-declared sovereign Americans make their way into the fray. No one is surprised when an armed secessionist and an All States counter-protester are both killed by police seeking to contain an overcrowded rally with rubber bullets in upstate New York.

As for the president, he has moved on to other issues. In the meantime, however, the secession and border dissolution parameters have taken a step toward greater legitimacy at both state and national levels, with new referenda and task forces planned for the new year.

‘The Outbreak Soon Reaches Epidemic Proportions’

BY GEORGES C. BENJAMIN

Georges C. Benjamin, MD, is executive director of the American Public Health Association. 

An infectious disease outbreak occurs in a small rural community that is poorly vaccinated. The initial symptoms are “flu like” with fever, headache, muscle aches and sore throat. Local officials initially believe it is a seasonal influenza outbreak, but initial test results for typical viral illnesses like flu, Covid and RSV are all negative.

Health officials eventually identify patient zero as someone who has just returned from overseas where an outbreak of an undiagnosed disease has sickened and killed over one hundred people. The state health department is called in to investigate and after a couple of days, so is the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Local officials are reluctant to impose traditional public health measures like contact tracing, masking, social distancing and quarantine of exposed individuals because of fears of community hostility; in fact, the impacted community recently passed a law limiting the health department’s powers to control infectious outbreaks.

As a result, public health officials can do little. Social media, meanwhile, is full of misinformation, and at least one post that says the disease is spread through the mail has been identified as being amplified by a hostile foreign actor. The outbreak continues to spread and there are now several reported deaths. Over the next few weeks, the outbreak spreads to surrounding communities including one big city and two other states, and the death toll climbs. Despite the reluctance to close schools and businesses, the number of sick individuals means that many have to shut down anyway because of lack of workers.

The disease is found to be one for which there is an experimental vaccine, but using it would require an emergency use authorization. The Health and Human Services leadership is now full of vaccine skeptics and so the administration’s health leadership becomes paralyzed by an intense internal debate about whether to use the experimental vaccine. Other therapeutic options are available, but pharmaceutical companies are nervous in this new climate and reluctant to produce the drugs without a guarantee of legal protections and financial support. The Food and Drug Administration struggles with the decision because the advisory committees that normally review vaccines and therapeutics have been dissolved.

Because of this, the outbreak soon reaches epidemic proportions across the United States. Other nations respond by imposing travel bans on U.S. residents. The economy is negatively impacted as goods and services become scarce and commodities stack up in the ports of entry. An epidemic that we had the tools to control winds up killing thousands and sending the economy back into a Covid-like downward spiral.

‘A Trump and Xi Alliance Will Emerge’

BY NANCY QIAN

Nancy Qian is the James J. O’Connor Professor at the Kellogg School of Management and the co-director of the Global Poverty Research Lab at Northwestern University, and the founder of China Econ Lab.

The first Trump term was characterized by a China-U.S. trade war. In the run-up to his second term, Trump doubled down on his anti-China message and claimed that he’ll impose a 60 percent tariff on Chinese imports when he’s in office. Many worry that a heavy-handed play against Xi Jinping, who has made clear that he will fight for what he views as China’s rights, can escalate an already tense geopolitical relationship. But upon closer examination, it is just as likely that the opposite will happen: that a Trump and Xi alliance will emerge.

Unlike Round 1 of Trump vs Xi, Round 2 has fewer fundamental divides and more opportunities for engagement. 2016-2020 was the peak of China-U.S. competition. China claimed that it would overtake the U.S. as the world’s largest economy. It asserted that its political system and ideology were superior to America’s. China’s long-term economic plan “Made in China 2025” was viewed as a direct threat by America and many other countries. Since then, China has moderated its claims of superiority and struggled with economic challenges caused by its extended and intense Covid-19 lockdowns, a real estate crisis, local government debt, youth unemployment and a rapidly aging population.

American priorities have also changed. In the 2024 campaign, Trump promised to end the Russia-Ukraine War, which began after his first term. Trump and Xi, who have both shown personal admiration for Russia’s Vladimir Putin, may work together with the latter to shape a peace deal that is acceptable to the three strongmen. Trump also promised Americans he would curb immigration. This will likely reduce labor supply and increase American consumer prices. Can Trump also afford high tariffs on Chinese goods, which can have similar effects on prices? If he has to choose, Trump will prioritize immigration, which was the central election issue, over tariffs. This opens another door for Trump and Xi to negotiate and compromise.

That’s why 2025 could be the year that Trump and Xi discover that they have much more in common than it appears.

‘A Two-State Solution’

BY JOHN MCLAUGHLIN

John McLaughlin was acting director and deputy director of CIA from 2000-2004 and now teaches at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies.

Everything is now so tightly interconnected that the potential for surprise exceeds anything we’ve seen in recent years. So get ready for lots of mini-Black Swans — that would translate to a new term, one with absolutely no catchy ring: Black Cygnets.

The linchpin accounting for this connectivity of threats is the Ukraine war. Had Vladimir Putin not invaded and gotten bogged down, he would not now be so entwined with North Korea; Iran would not now be planning to build drones in Russia; and China’s partnership with Russia might not have deepened so consequentially. And without all of that, we would not be dealing with the so-called Axis of Autocracy. But if somehow, 2025 produces a negotiated settlement of the Ukraine war — too likely to be a Black Swan — we would see hard-to-predict ripple effects in North Korea, Iran and China. North Korea, for example, would presumably pull its thousands of troops back to the peninsula — newly emboldened by combat experience for some sort of conflict with South Korea.

This said, I think the most surprising big Black Swan would be in the Middle East, and it would be movement toward a two-state solution for the decades-long conflict between Israelis and Palestinians.

Calling for a two-state solution is the default option for Western leaders lamenting the conflict, but the odds against it, at least over the next year, are overwhelming. Logically, it would require a new Israeli government that pushes right-wing politicians to the sidelines. Israel would also have to dismantle a sizable number of its West Bank settlements, as former Prime Minister Ehud Barak offered to do in the 2000 Camp David negotiations, when President Bill Clinton almost achieved a settlement and when the process was less advanced.

The Palestinians would have to jettison current leadership and find a way to come together under new leadership that could represent them in negotiations. And there would have to be some agreement on reconstruction and governance for Gaza. Finally, we would need a big push from major Arab governments, especially Saudi Arabia and the UAE. This concatenation of events is so improbable as to move it to the top of my Black Swan candidate list.

‘Market Crash Triggers a Global Panic’

BY AMY WEBB

Amy Webb is the CEO of Future Today Institute and professor of strategic foresight at New York University Stern School of Business.

In the midst of deregulation and government downsizing, President Donald Trump’s tech czars deprioritize scenario planning. Botnets have already proven just how easily and effectively sophisticated AI algorithms can be used to spread disinformation. With the election now over, malicious actors and nation-state malcontents focus on a new target in 2025: financial markets.

The AI ingests massive amounts of real-time market data (stock prices, volatility), financial reports (earnings, debt levels), and economic indicators while scraping social media platforms like X and Reddit to gauge public sentiment. Among other factors, the AI assesses vulnerability: targeting companies with weak financial fundamentals, or those with negative public perceptions, that could be susceptible to market shocks. Then, it’s just a matter of spreading misinformation: generating rumors about company leadership, fabricating news about product recalls or safety hazards or creating fake evidence of financial fraud.

Before launching the attack, the AI automatically generates millions of scenarios, testing different variables to optimize the best channels and times to release the misinformation campaign. With a strategy in place, the bad actor causes an artificial market panic, as the AI executes high-frequency trades with superhuman precision and leads hedge funds and others to follow suit. The sheer complexity and speed of the attack — combined with lax regulatory oversight — blindsides the Trump administration, whose efficiency gurus downplay it as “a little nonsense.” This scale of technical failure is shocking, but not unfamiliar to them at this point, and they have neither the staff nor a plan to fix it. It’s impossible to detect and attribute the attack, which means countermeasures can’t be easily deployed.

The market crash triggers a global panic, with uncertainty plaguing investors everywhere and copycat attacks on the London and Tokyo exchanges. Rumor has it that a far left tech militia is behind all of this, with the intent to destroy Trump using his biggest weak spot: his personal wealth.

‘Climate Action Becomes the Norm’

BY KATHARINE HAYHOE

Katharine Hayhoe is a distinguished professor at Texas Tech University and chief scientist at The Nature Conservancy. She is the author of Saving Us: A Climate Scientist’s Case for Hope and Healing in a Divided World.

Despite Donald Trump’s return to the White House, action ramps up across the country to tackle the climate crisis.

Here’s the context: During the 1980s, the U.S. averaged about three billion-plus dollar extreme weather disasters annually. Fast forward to today, and the situation couldn’t be more different. 2023 saw 28 billion-plus dollar disasters while in 2024, in just two weeks, two massive hurricanes pummeled the southeastern United States. Super-sized by record warm ocean waters, Helene and Milton wiped out highways and homes and cut off entire towns from the rest of the world. In total, 2024 saw 24 billion-plus dollar disasters. Nine out of ten Americans now report being personally affected by extreme weather, and the ripple effects are everywhere.

As both the risks of climate change and the rewards of climate solutions become clearer, bipartisan support for action is growing. The Inflation Reduction Act has catalyzed unprecedented investment in clean energy, 85 percent of it in counties that voted for Trump. This bipartisan momentum is hard to reverse, as evidenced by a recent letter from 18 House Republicans defending key IRA provisions. Recent elections also highlight a shift: Voters approved 13 state and local climate and conservation initiatives.

Society is rapidly approaching a tipping point in public opinion, where climate action becomes the norm rather than the exception. In a surprise to many, 2025 could be the year of this shift.

‘Unexpected Geopolitical Alliances and Realignments’

BY BRYNDAN D. MOORE

Bryndan D. Moore is an engineer and the host of The Black Futurist podcast.

I am drawn to three key scenarios.

First, imagine the sudden rise of Artificial Super Intelligence (ASI) along with the maturation of quantum computing by as early as 2025. This technological leap could catalyze significant GDP growth across new industries, benefiting both rural and urban pioneers. More profoundly, this advancement could lead to unexpected geopolitical alliances and realignments on a global scale, particularly reshaping our relationships with Middle Eastern nations, Europe, and notably, boosting productivity in Africa and India. Such a development would fundamentally reshape the global economic and political landscapes in ways we currently can barely imagine.

Second, consider the potential for a dramatic shift in the Middle East. There’s a chance that Trump could orchestrate a cessation of hostilities in areas like Gaza, Syria and southern Lebanon and broker a move toward peace and stability that might pave the way for democratic developments in Syria and a stabilization of Lebanon. This scenario would depend on complex international negotiations and the willingness of involved parties to consolidate gains and move towards peace — a monumental task, but one that could profoundly alter the Middle Eastern socio-political fabric.

Lastly, let’s not overlook the vulnerability of our global infrastructure to major disruptions from cyberattacks, geological upheavals or solar phenomena. Such events could cripple energy and communication networks, impacting everything from satellite operations to transportation systems worldwide. The interconnectedness of modern infrastructures means that the ripple effects of such disruptions could be global in scale, affecting economic stability and daily living conditions.

In my analysis, I emphasize preparing our minds for the breadth of possibilities the future may hold. It’s about readiness over reaction.

‘South Korea’s Secret Nuclear Weapons Program’

BY S. NATHAN PARK

S. Nathan Park is a Washington-based attorney and non-resident fellow at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft.

A surprise nuclear weapons test in the Korean Peninsula rocks the world — and it’s not in North Korea. South Korean President Lee Jae-myung makes a declaration that stunned the world: The Republic of Korea is now a nuclear power, and it is invoking Article X of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons to withdraw from the treaty.

South Korea’s secret nuclear weapons program had begun under the disgraced former president Yoon Suk-yeol, who was impeached, removed and imprisoned for an attempted self-coup. But when Lee took office and discovered the program, he ordered the scientists to continue.

In the past, the United States would have detected and headed off any effort by Seoul to develop nuclear weapons. But the Donald Trump administration, following its purge of the “deep state” at the State Department and the CIA, lacked the ability to do so. Not that Trump minded anyway: He praises the move, saying South Korea’s “big beautiful bomb” is a sign that the country is serious about defending itself against North Korea instead of “leeching” off the U.S.

With no U.S. backstop, dominoes fall in East Asia. Almost simultaneously, Japan and Taiwan announce their own program — after all, technology was never the issue for these countries. With major Asian countries abandoning the Non-Proliferation Treaty, the system becomes unsustainable. Just like that, a major pillar of the post-WWII world order is destroyed. The era of mutually assured destruction is back.

‘The American Military Moves Into the Unvaccinated Age’

BY JACOB SOLL

Jacob Soll is a professor of philosophy, history and accounting at the University of Southern California. He is the author of Free Market: The History of an Idea (Basic Books).

It’s January 22nd, two days after the inauguration. The word comes down from the Secretary of Defense: No vaccine will be mandatory for the entire military. Not for Covid or the flu or anything else. Those servicemen who want them can get them, but the government will not reimburse for vaccines which Robert F. Kennedy Jr. — with the support of his allies at the CDC, FDA and NIH — has declared dangerous and ineffectual, thus allowing insurance companies to refuse to reimburse for them. The American military moves into the unvaccinated age.

Meanwhile, on a dairy farm in Texas, a virulent strain of H1N1 bird flu jumps from cows to farmworkers. Some of the farm workers’ families work at Fort Cavazos military base. There is an outbreak there too. It’s a virulent strain causing acute respiratory failure. Dozens of farmworkers and soldiers die. The government issues no statement. Breaking with military doctors who recommend swift vaccination for soldiers and civilians, the CDC won’t confirm the deaths are, in fact, caused by H1N1 and the secretary of Defense refuses to take action. The flu spreads across the country and the globe, with more and more service members falling ill.

The world begins to react. From Mexico to China to East Asia to Europe and Russia, militaries and governments begin vaccination campaigns. German, Japanese and Korean officials complain to the American government that their military bases have become hotbeds of flu outbreak. Foreign governments call in vain for protective measures and vaccines at bases. Military cooperation falters. The European public finally begins to call for defense spending.

As bird flu spreads over the following month, generals begin to warn that American fighting strength is being depleted by illness and even death. One general suggests that the flu poses a bigger threat to American security than China and notes that General George Washington ordered mandatory smallpox inoculation for any soldier who had not yet had the disease. The general’s comments infuriate President Donald Trump and he pushes for the general’s court martial.

As China, India and Russia push forward with successful vaccine campaigns, the American military is increasingly incapacitated. East Asian and European countries call for a summit with China. A vaccinated and newly militarizing Europe demands the expulsion of American troops. The great American military machine is sick. A new security order is taking shape in the lands of the vaccinated and capital markets begin to flee toward healthier havens.

‘The People of Belarus Could See Freedom’

BY EVELYN FARKAS

Evelyn Farkas is the executive director of the McCain Institute at Arizona State University. She served as deputy assistant secretary of Defense for Russia, Ukraine and Eurasia from 2012 to 2015.

The toppling of Aleksandr Lukashenko’s government by the people of Belarus.

The elected president-in-exile, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, likely registering the weakness of the Russian government in light of the defeat of Assad in Syria and economic and manpower pressures weighing on Vladimir Putin’s war on Ukraine, recently urged the people of Belarus to be ready for the moment when they could take to the streets and remove the regime.

It is not too much of a Black Swan to imagine Putin having to compromise and gain Ukrainian land, but witness Ukraine join NATO or come under the bilateral treaty protection of the United States. Or he could still be defeated on the battlefield — especially if Ukraine gets access to the $300 billion in frozen Russian assets.

A negative outcome for the Kremlin in its war of aggression against Ukraine could cause a challenge to Putin’s rule. The people of Belarus could see freedom by taking advantage of Putin’s weakened position and his inability to jump in to save Lukashenko.

‘Loss of Power Will Fundamentally Upend American Life’

BY MICHELLE LI

Michelle Li is the founder and CEO of clever carbon, which helps raise carbon literacy, and the founder of the non-profit organization Women and Climate.

Energy security is cause for a major Black Swan event in 2025. As AI continues to pick up steam, greener pastures for crypto unfold, digital consumption accelerates, and we see a full economic recovery post-Covid, there is no question that energy demands will soar in 2025. Not only will emissions skyrocket as a result, but energy security and grid failure are at high risk, exacerbated by extreme weather conditions.

We’ve already seen this play out with Hurricane Helene and many others, but if we look to a small island named Cuba, we get a glimpse of a Black Swan event that can take place, even without a natural disaster. Cuba’s grid collapsed due to outdated infrastructure with a storm and earthquake furthering delays of grid repair, leaving citizens stranded for months. In the United States, over 70 percent of transmission lines and transformers are over 25 years old and built for a time when energy demands were light to moderate. On the other end is a cybersecurity risk; hackers will continue to target critical infrastructure from water plants to energy providers.

At the heart of the issue is a national security risk. Without power, any county, city and country are vulnerable to cyberattacks targeting health care and financial systems. A loss of power will fundamentally upend American life, and lead to urgent and chaotic political responses. Energy security may be the ultimate Black Swan event of 2025.

‘The Temptation to Reach for the Nuclear Toolbox May Be Too Hard to Resist’

BY JEFF GREENFIELD

Jeff Greenfield is a contributing writer at POLITICO Magazine covering U.S. politics. He’s a five-time Emmy-winning network television analyst and has written multiple books about American politics.

The coming year provides more than its share of scenarios that seem a lot more plausible than they did a year or so ago. Here are a few.

The collapse of checks and balances: The push to confirm Donald Trump’s more “challenging” nominees has included clear warnings to Republican senators that their futures depend on abandoning their constitutional role to provide checks and balances. Alabama Sen. Tommy Tuberville has argued that it is none of the Senate’s business to actually vet a president’s nominees, and MAGA loyalists have already raised the threat of primaries against wavering Republicans. But this is only the opening shot of what could be a full-scale fusillade of attacks on the Senate’s role. Recess appointments that skirt the confirmation process; impoundment of funds for congressionally-approved spending; deployment of presidential power in the face of legislative restrictions could all become reality if Republicans feared that the assertion of their senatorial prerogatives would mean the end of their political careers.

Crossing the nuclear “red line”: In a recent chilling article for the New York Times Magazine, author William Langewiesche looked back at a 40-year-old war game to explain that the growth of very low-yield tactical nuclear weapons has made the potential for battlefield deployment more likely than in the past. We’ve already heard frequent comments on Russian media that their potential use would be a perfectly reasonable response to setbacks in its war with Ukraine. Should nuclear states like Russia, China and North Korea launch aggressive attacks on their neighbors with the goal of “final victory,” and should those assaults fail, the temptation to reach for the nuclear toolbox may be too hard to resist. (That war game scenario ended with the deaths of millions).

A digital disaster: In this past year, “ransomware” attacks have hit major companies like AT&T and Disney, along with city and county governments, costing an estimated $40 billion just in the United States. But these attacks pale in comparison to what could happen if a digital assault cripples the electric grid or disrupts communications nationwide. With credible reports of state actors (China? Russia?) probing for weaknesses in our web-centric society, the potential cost — in money, health and lives — is literally incalculable.

‘Decisive Breakthrough in Quantum Computing’

BY AZIZ HUQ

Aziz Huq teaches law at the University of Chicago and is the author of The Collapse of Constitutional Remedies.

Science fiction offers startlingly accurate premonitions of what the rest of us, mired in the everyday, fail to see coming. Think of Emily St. John Mandel’s modern plague novel Station 11, published before the Covid pandemic. Or in Brian K. Vaughan and Marcos Martin’s The Private Eye, where a different plague sweeps over America: Information security breaks and all private data becomes public.

Vaughan and Martin’s story is brought to mind by recent news of quantum computing breakthroughs, first in China and then by Google stateside. Realizing a practicable quantum computer might well render obsolete many of the cryptographic protections used to shield personal and corporate data today: Those little padlocks you see beside URLs? They would, overnight, become a fiction.

Consider then what might follow if the decisive breakthrough in quantum computing, the one that rendered it a practical reality for states and large firms, is made in China’s Tsinghua University in late 2025. Imagine it is weaponized in an ongoing trade war to strip away many of the privacy protections of Americans’ personal data. Vaughan and Martin’s brilliant tale depends on a world in which trust has evaporated. They suggest individuals and nations alike pursue a fearful isolation in its absence. Like all great science fiction, it resonates not because of the leaps of imagination taken. It resonates because it is so close to home.