Pentagon Report: China To Build 1,000 Nukes By 2030

China is rapidly growing its nuclear arsenal and will likely have 1,000 nuclear weapons by 2030, according to the latest Pentagon report about Beijing's military might.

The country has added at least 100 nuclear warheads to its stockpile over the past year and now has more than 600 in its inventory, the report said.

The latest U.S. estimate of the increasing Chinese nuclear capability comes amid uncertainty over the incoming Trump administration’s China policy, which is expected to build upon President Joe Biden's hard stance.

President-elect Donald Trump will use tariffs and economic pressure in an attempt to exert influence over Beijing, and he is seeking to fill his administration with China hawks, from State Department pick Marco Rubio to incoming national security adviser Rep. Mike Waltz (R-Fla.).

The nuke estimate comes from an annual report the Pentagon sends to Congress about Beijing’s military ambitions, which tracks the growth of the Chinese navy and air force as well as corruption within the defense ministry.

The report stops predicting the size of China’s nuclear stockpile at 2030. “I would certainly expect them to continue expanding and modernizing their force after that,” a defense official, who was granted anonymity to explain details of the report, told reporters.

China retains its “no first use” policy for its nuclear force — meaning it would not fire first — and its focus is more on deterring a massive counter strike, the report said.

The increase in nuclear warheads comes amid a wider focus on developing new intercontinental ballistic missiles “in numbers and greater survivability to improve their nuclear capable missile forces,” the official said. “They also are showing some interest in developing a new conventional ICBM that could strike Hawaii, Alaska and the continental United States.”

All of that comes amid China’s expected uptick in defense spending.

Beijing’s outlays on defense have always been murky, as U.S. and Western officials have cautioned that China — like Russia — doesn’t publicly divulge the true size of their defense budgets. The report estimates that China spends at least 40 percent more than it announces in its public defense budget, which equates to about $330 to $450 billion in total defense spending for 2024.

The U.S. defense budget remains the highest in the world. President Joe Biden’s latest request reached $880 billion and is expected to rise once Congress makes adds in the coming weeks.

While the U.S. and China have resumed some mid-level military-to-military conversations over the past year, China’s defense minister declined a meeting with Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin during a gathering of defense leaders in Laos last month. Austin called the move “unfortunate,” and “ a setback for the whole region.”

American and Chinese military officials met in Beijing in September and Navy Adm. Samuel Paparo, head of the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, held a video teleconference with China's Gen. Wu Yanan, commander of the military's southern theater around the same time.

The conversations came after U.S. and Chinese military officials agreed in January to resume the U.S.-China Defense Policy Coordination Talks. Prior to that, no high-level talks had been held since September 2021.

By sheer numbers alone, China is out dueling the Pentagon in size.

The Chinese navy is the world’s largest, boasting over 370 ships and submarines, including more than 140 major surface combatants, It outpaces the U.S. Navy’s 290 ships and several new destroyers, cruisers, and amphibious ships are in various stages of construction at Chinese shipyards.

Beijing’s third aircraft carrier, Fujian, is expected to enter service in 2025.

The Chinese air force is increasing production of its fifth-generation J-20 stealth fighter, and is building a new assembly plant to prepare to further expand production. Around 1,300 of its 1,900 fighters are advanced, fourth-generation fighters that rival some of the most sophisticated jets built in the U.S. and Europe.

While China has made huge strides in modernizing its military, corruption remains a problem.

The People’s Liberation Army “continues to struggle with deeply rooted problems of corruption,” the defense official said.

Fifteen “high ranking military officials and defense industry executives were removed from their posts for corruption,” last year, the person said. “Several were responsible for overseeing equipment development projects related to modernizing China's ground based nuclear and conventional missiles.”

China has also lagged behind its material advances when it comes to developing a workable logistics plan for deploying its ships, aircraft, and troops too far from the mainland. That could limit its ability to project power beyond the South China Sea.