The Lloyd Void: Ukraine Group Wrestles With Future After Austin Leaves

Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin is in Germany for a final meeting with allies on Ukraine aid. The next time the group gathers, things will look very different — if it meets at all.

Formed in the aftermath of Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022, the Ukraine Defense Contact Group has ballooned to 50-plus member nations and has overseen the transfer of $126 billion worth of weapons and equipment, making it one of the largest arms transfers in history.

But when Austin departs the Pentagon this month, the group will lose its biggest cheerleader and founder, and no other countries have offered to take the lead. It’s an especially tumultuous time as the incoming Trump administration shows skepticism toward Ukraine aid and new far-right European governments are expressing less interest in sending more weapons to Kyiv.

The dissolution of the group could be a blow to Ukraine, which is losing ground to Russia and is struggling to recruit and train new troops.

“It's a lot of what if’s,” Adm. Rob Bauer, NATO’s top military official, said in an interview. “We have to continue to support Ukraine.”

NATO officials argue the group can still function without him, albeit in a slightly different form. The U.K., which hosted the first allied meetings, and Germany, which has been a major supplier to Ukraine, lead the list of potential leaders, according to one NATO official.

The U.S. has broached the issue in informal talks with several European allies about who might play a larger role in the group come February if the Trump administration isn’t interested, said the NATO official, who like others in the story was granted anonymity to discuss internal plans. European officials want to first see where the new Pentagon chief stands on the group before making any moves.

“The Ukraine Defense Contact Group is very much Secretary Austin's brainchild,” a Pentagon official told reporters Tuesday prior to Austin’s departure. “We're not sunsetting the group. The next administration is completely welcome and encouraged, even, to take the mantle of this 50-country-strong group and continue to drive and lead through it.”

Allies point to at least one option for moving forward. European members have created several subgroups — called capability coalitions — focused on supplying Ukraine with key technologies in areas such as drones, long-range missiles, air defense and armor, all of which will continue to operate.

The groups have functioned independently since late 2023 and could theoretically continue to do so under the leadership of individual nations.

"What the future is of those coalitions … is one of the reasons why the coalition leadership group will meet at the ministerial level to lay a sound foundation for the future," the Pentagon official said.

But a number of NATO officials stress the usefulness of Austin’s hands-on approach and are not eager to see that leadership wane.

The United States continues to be “the leader in NATO,” no matter who is in the White House, NATO’s Bauer said. “That's the big difference between NATO and EU. We have a leader, which is the United States, so therefore it's important that the United States leads.”

Austin is expected to announce on Thursday that the U.S. will unveil a new $500 million weapons package for Ukraine, according to two U.S. officials and another person familiar with the funding.

The package underscores the Biden administration’s commitment to Ukraine. But it will leave more than $3.8 billion remaining in the authority the president has to draw down weapons and equipment to supply Ukraine, with no clear plan for using that spending authority once the Trump team takes office.

Thursday's Ukraine Defense Contact Group meeting will be its 25th since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

The group’s member nations have sent Ukraine more than $126 billion in security assistance, split evenly between the U.S. and the other members. Washington has sent $61.4 billion in military aid, including arms and equipment worth $27.7 billion from Pentagon stockpiles.