The Worst Political Predictions Of 2024
One of the most obviously wrong predictions about 2024 was also among the most universal 12 months ago: that the coming presidential election was going to be “boring.”
Boring? Consider one eight-day period in July. On the 13th, former President Donald Trump was shot and inches away from being killed. On the 18th, he took to the stage at the Republican National Convention and recounted his shooting while wearing a bandage the size of a toaster strudel on his right ear. On the 21st, President Joe Biden euthanized his own reelection campaign. A few hours later, Vice President Kamala Harris became the Democratic Party’s de facto standard-bearer with just more than 100 days left before the end of the election. Chaotic, frenzied, news-packed? Yes. Boring? Hardly.
If you got that one wrong, welcome to the club. To be human is to be wrong frequently, to be surprised on occasion and to have your expectations thwarted over and over again.
Here, for your amusement — and, perhaps a reminder for us all to show some humility in how we view the world — is a menagerie of the very worst predictions about politics in 2024.
Joe Biden won’t pardon Hunter
Predicted by:
John Harwood, among others
Hunter Biden’s sprawling legal problems — he was found guilty on three counts in a federal gun case and, separately, pleaded guilty to nine charges stemming from his failure to pay roughly $1.4 million in taxes between 2016 and 2020 — were a major pain point for his father in a year filled with them.
Still, President Joe Biden and his White House aides repeatedly insisted that the president’s sole surviving son would not receive special treatment or presidential mercy.
“Have you ruled out a pardon for your son?” ABC News’ David Muir asked Biden on June 6. “Yes,” the president replied.
On July 25, White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre was asked whether the president would pardon his son. “It’s still a no. It will be a no,” she said. “Will he pardon his son? No.”
On Nov. 7, after Trump won the election, Jean-Pierre again fielded questions about whether a pardon was coming. “We’ve been asked that question multiple times,” she said. “Our answer stands, which is no.”
On Dec. 1, Biden pardoned his son, bringing ridicule upon some of those who believed his repeated denials. “People who insist Biden will pardon Hunter after specifically ruling it out are telling on themselves,” journalist John Harwood tweeted back on June 13. “They can’t imagine someone acting on principle and keeping his word.”
Kamala Harris will win the presidential election
Predicted by:
Rob Reiner, among a great many others
The closing weeks of the campaign were high times for Democratic hopium. In at least some polls, Harris was leading. Her ground game was viewed as decidedly better than Trump’s. The crowds at her rallies were massive. The vibe had shifted in some fundamental way.
On the eve of the election, Rob Reiner, the liberal activist and celebrated filmmaker, captured the sentiment well in a tweet predicting Harris’ impending victory using, uh, evocative language: “A woman gave birth to each and every one of us. Tomorrow a woman will give birth to a renewal of our Democracy.”
For sale: baby shoes, never worn.
As we all know, Trump won both the Electoral College and the popular vote — the first time in two decades that the Republican presidential candidate had carried at least a plurality of the votes.
Elon Musk will either lose control of Twitter or sell it
Predicted by:
Scott Galloway
Author Scott Galloway predicted Musk would dispense with the social media platform largely for financial reasons, noting “even the world’s wealthiest man can have cash-flow issues.”
You can debate whether X/Twitter has become a cesspool. You can chew over whether or not it was a good investment, seeing as it has lost most of its valuation. But you cannot dispute that Elon Musk is firmly in control of the platform.
This year, the world’s wealthiest man has made himself the inescapable character there, juiced his own posts so that the “For You” tab is less aimed at your interests and inclinations than his own proclivities, reworked the platform’s standards on things like hate speech, blocked accounts and the like. For those of us on X, it really is Elon’s world and we’re just living in it.
The 2024 election will see a “landslide of election rigging claims,” with the Supreme Court hashing things out to allow for a Trump presidency
Predicted by:
Scott Adams
Certain segments of the MAGA internet have a general view that Donald Trump can do no wrong; he can only be wronged. Criminal cases against him? The poisoned fruit of a crooked justice system. Damning revelations from former staffers or advisers? Simple jealousy from cast-offs who either couldn’t cut the mustard or were out to undermine him all along. Elections he loses? Rigged.
On Nov. 2, “Dilbert” creator Scott Adams wrote on X that the U.S. would soon see “a landslide of election rigging claims. More than courts can handle before Jan 6th. … Trump will get the most real votes, but Democrats will empty the trickster vault to keep him from being certified and taking office on schedule.” Ultimately, he envisioned a happy ending for his fellow MAGA believers: “I predict America will sort it all out by the end of January(ish). Probably via Supreme Court.” (He later predicted the election would have “No winner” on account of pervasive election-rigging.)
None of that came to pass, of course. Funny, though: According to the logic of election deniers, Democrats were apparently able to rig the 2020 election, when Trump was in the White House, but unable to do so in 2024 when Biden was president. Almost makes you think the claims of rigging were nonsense all along.
If Trump wins, there will be riots in Washington and New York
Predicted by:
Michael McKenna
Trump did win, which former Trump White House aide Michael McKenna predicted and kudos to him there, but though there were demonstrations here and there, neither New York City nor Washington saw a riot. (The same cannot be said of Washington on Jan. 6, 2021, after Trump lost.)
Trump will lose his immunity case, go on trial on March 4 and spend the rest of his life in prison
Predicted by:
George Conway
We know how this turned out.
First, the immunity case. Trump did lose the case in the federal district and again before a three-judge panel at the appeals court (where attorney George Conway was making his prediction and where Judge Karen Henderson memorably said that “it’s paradoxical” to suggest that the president’s “constitutional duty to ‘take care that the laws be faithfully executed’ allows him to violate criminal laws”). But then the Supreme Court took it up. In a 6-3 ruling, the justices found that Trump, as president, has immunity from prosecution for some actions he took.
Second, the timing of the trial. It didn’t start on March 4. In fact, it was never heard. And barring some truly astonishing Jim Kelly-style comeback, it never will be heard: Special counsel Jack Smith dropped his federal criminal cases against Trump last month, shortly after Trump won the presidential election.
Third, life in prison. In fairness to Conway, he said that “Trump will spend the rest of his life in jail,” while adding this proviso: “It may take a while. Justice has already taken a while.” So I’ll concede that it is at least possible that Trump may yet somehow end up in prison. But it’s late December, and Trump is headed not to the big house, but to the White House.
Biden will beat Trump
Predicted by:
Many people
There are any number of reasons you might have predicted this. Journalist Juan Williams ticked through many of them in a piece on the first day of the year.
“With the stock market up, unemployment down, wages rising, inflation slowing and the U.S. standing tall against Russia and China, Biden has a record to persuade swing voters,” Williams wrote in an op-ed The Hill titled “Biden will beat Trump and Kamala Harris will play a huge role.”
It was a prediction echoed by a great many people.
Journalist Kevin Drum. (“Donald Trump will win the Republican nomination. Joe Biden will be reelected president.”)
The Financial Times’ Ed Luce. (“Will Donald Trump become US president again? No. … It will be very close run. Trump will be criminally convicted in at least one of his four trials, probably two, before the election. … Though visibly ageing, Biden will squeak through, more because a narrow majority will be rejecting Trump than endorsing a Biden second term.”)
The Economist Intelligence Unit. (“Mr Biden will win the election, despite the challenges that he faces. … One factor leaning in Mr Biden’s favour is the economy, which remains a priority for voters.”)
Historian Allan Lichtman. (“A lot would have to go wrong for Biden to lose.”) (More on Dr. Lichtman in a bit.)
Democratic strategist and consultant Simon Rosenberg. (“[T]here’s a strong argument that Biden’s age is also an asset for him. ... We are quietly confident.”)
And so on.
A lot of this was wishful thinking from people who found the specter of Trump’s return to the White House simply too grim to seriously entertain. But we shouldn’t make the mistake of believing something should be obvious simply because we now have the benefit of hindsight: There were reasons to believe Biden could win. Even as voters loudly and unambiguously gnashed their teeth about high prices, other economic indicators were strong. There were the natural advantages of incumbency and the historical fact that, at least in this mass media era, presidents who seek reelection tend to win. And there was the fact that as the year began — and, perhaps, even up to the opening moments of the June 27 debate — many Americans had no idea just how much the president had obviously and visibly deteriorated with age. Which leads us to …
Joe Biden will benefit from an early debate
Predicted by:
Joe Biden’s advisers
As the first half of the year wore on, it became clear that Trump was a formidable candidate with a stubborn lead in the polls — even despite his criminal trial in Manhattan and Biden’s incumbency. The president’s campaign needed to do something big to defibrillate itself.
On May 15, they did just that, “publicly offering to bring forward the first presidential debate by three months,” the New York Times’ Reid Epstein and Shane Goldmacher wrote that day. “The move was meant to jolt Americans to attention sooner than later about their consequential choice in 2024. Mr. Biden’s advisers have long believed that the dawning realization of a Trump-Biden rematch will be a balm for the president’s droopy approval ratings.”
Viewers who did watch them side by side were jolted, but not in the way Biden wanted.
Nobody who tuned in could seriously argue that Biden hadn’t declined with age, nor could they argue that the man before them would be able to effectively drive a message or prosecute the case against Trump or reassure voters about his mental acuity. It was an unmitigated disaster. His most memorable line of the night — “We finally beat Medicare” — will surely go down as one of the worst misfires in presidential debate history.
The debate mortally wounded his campaign, precipitating weeks of hand-wringing from down-ballot Democrats who worried about how he’d affect the rest of the ticket. Ultimately, the early debate may have benefited the party — preventing the total wipeout that might’ve landed ashore in November had Biden’s name remained at the top of the ballot. But it certainly did not benefit his candidacy.
Trump will no-show his debate with Biden
Predicted by:
James Carville
See above.
The markets will crash if Trump is convicted in New York
Predicted by:
John Carney
As the news media awaited a verdict in Donald Trump’s hush money/business fraud trial in Manhattan, Fox Business decided to use the time to provide some head-scratching analysis from Breitbart’s John Carney.
“I think markets crash tomorrow if there’s a conviction,” Carney proclaimed.
Trump was convicted, and the markets … didn’t crash. In fact, on May 31, 2024 — the first full day markets were open after Trump was convicted — the Dow climbed about 575 points, posting what was at the time its best day of 2024.
Matt Gaetz will be the next attorney general
Predicted by:
Mike Engleman and @catturd2
Neil Young famously sang that it’s “better to burn out than to fade away.” But Neil surely never met Matt Gaetz, a man who is living proof that sometimes, it’s probably better to fade away and that the reason why you burned out matters a hell of a lot.
Long before President-elect Trump named the fratty Florida Republican his designee to lead the Department of Justice, Gaetz was dogged by accusations that he’d had sex with a 17-year-old girl and that he paid for the sex — allegations he has vociferously and steadfastly denied.
Those allegations were at the center of a House Ethics Committee investigation into Gaetz, with the report’s release due to be voted on, by chance, just days after Trump unveiled him as his pick for attorney general. And so Gaetz resigned immediately, which had the effect of temporarily icing the Ethics Committee (the panel is now expected to release the report in the coming days) even as it doused kerosene onto the Senate’s consideration of his nomination.
MAGA faithful stood by him. “Matt Gaetz will be the next Attorney General! Suck it libs!” posted conservative influencer Mike Engleman on Nov. 16, quote-tweeting a message with the same gist by the inimitable @catturd2. Again on Nov. 20: “Gaetz will be the next Attorney General!”
But on Nov. 21, with the furor showing no sign of abating and Senate Republicans signaling he wouldn’t be confirmed, Gaetz’s nomination flamed out and he withdrew from consideration for attorney general.
RFK Jr. won’t be picked to lead HHS
Predicted by:
Howard Lutnick
On Oct. 30, Howard Lutnick, the co-chair of the Trump transition team, told CNN’s Kaitlan Collins that Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is “not getting a job for HHS,” using the abbreviation for the Department of Health and Human Services, the vast and complex bureaucracy that undergirds health care in America.
Collins, surprised, replied: “He would not be in charge of HHS?”
“No, of course not,” said Lutnick.
Two weeks later, President-elect Trump selected Kennedy to lead HHS, and began naming other appointees who reflected Kennedy’s vaccine-skeptical argle-bargle.
Was this a bad prediction from Lutnick, an outright lie or an instance of hubris from someone who was not quite as read-in to Trump’s thinking as he presented himself? Perhaps a little from all three. Kennedy may not win confirmation, but he’s certainly been picked by Trump.
Trump will pick a female running mate
Predicted by:
Nikole Killion, among others
“If former President Trump ends up being the Republican nominee, I predict that he will pick a female running mate,” Killion said earlier this year. “It makes sense, potentially.”
This prediction was sensible while being incorrect. In an election in which abortion rights marked a vulnerability for the Republican ticket — especially after Democrats rode anger about the overturning of Roe to a better-than-expected 2022 — why wouldn’t Trump pick a woman as his VP candidate? There were plenty of A-list pols to draw from — former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley or Rep. Elise Stefanik — as well as a bunch of out-of-left-field-but-somehow-you-could-picture-it choices, like South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem or former Rep. Tulsi Gabbard of Hawaii.
Instead, he opted for another option that was sensible if not as obviously beneficial, choosing a fellow white man from a state that wasn’t in play in the election: Sen. JD Vance.
History will repeat itself with a chaotic Dem convention in Chicago
Predicted by:
Bill McGurn and more than a few other pundits
Admittedly, this prediction is puzzling. I get why the low-hanging fruit of the 1968 Democratic convention in Chicago is appealing: It’s right there for the taking, with an unpopular Democratic incumbent in the White House, youth anger about a foreign-policy decision and the tantalizing possibility of chaos at those most scripted of political dog-and-pony shows.
But 2024 in Chicago was never going to be like 1968 in Chicago. There was nothing comparable to the assassinations of Robert F. Kennedy or Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. in the months leading up to it. There was no threat of the draft shipping young Americans off like it did during the Vietnam War. There was nothing similar to the old convention delegate stranglehold on the process.
Was history going to repeat itself simply by virtue of the fact the convention was in Chicago? The convention came and went, with few real surprises, save for the fact former President Barack Obama, perhaps the greatest orator of our time, used his reemergence on the national stage to make a penis size innuendo about Trump.
The “GOP will be splintered more than it has been in decades”
Predicted by:
Benjamin Rothove
The crux of the split within the GOP, according to Benjamin Rothove, a student at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, was going to be ideological: “What does it mean to be on the right? The Reagan-era consensus around free trade, free-market capitalism and a militarily strong America has been challenged by Trump-era protectionism, nationalism and isolationism.”
That isn’t a schism that would be papered over very easily, and so it was that Rothove predicted at the beginning of the year that when “GOP leaders unite in Milwaukee this July, they will grapple with essential questions about the future of their party and country. No matter the outcome of the Republican presidential primary, the GOP will be splintered more than it has been in decades.”
There can be no mistaking the outcome of the 2024 election. Far from fractured, the GOP is quite unified at the moment: One party, under Trump, indivisible. They have control of the House, Senate, White House and Supreme Court. Trump is emboldened, and even those Republican officeholders who’ve been looked to in the past to provide guardrails are instead doing the emboldening.
A split GOP? Nope. Trump himself has become the litmus test of what it means to be a Republican. Are you for him or against him? Insufficient fealty puts you in the latter group and makes you, in the best case, a RINO.
Nikki Haley will be the GOP nominee
Predicted by:
Jonathan Rauch and Paul Poast
The only primaries Haley won were in Vermont and Washington, D.C. Trump cruised to the Republican nomination, and despite some tough talk about Trump needing to earn support, Haley came around pretty quickly to endorse him. Now her future is even more uncertain in Trump’s GOP: She was not a key surrogate on the trail, and Trump eagerly announced he would not be offering her a place in his next Cabinet.
Nikki Haley will be the No Labels candidate for president
Predicted by:
Ari Fleischer
Remember this spring when all the Democrats worried that No Labels would mount a third-party bid for the White House and spoil the election for Joe Biden? Oh, to be so young.
As the centrist brigade chugged forward with a potential No Labels ticket, it became something of an uber-insider parlor game in D.C. to wonder who might end up as its candidate. Joe Manchin? Dean Phillips? Larry Hogan? Chris Christie? How about someone who actually ran for president this cycle, like Haley?
It was in the process of that campaign that Ari Fleischer, the Republican consultant and Bush 43 messaging maven, heard something from Haley that rang the No Labels bell. “She said, ‘I’m a woman of my word. I’m not giving up this fight when a majority of Americans disapprove of both Donald Trump and Joe Biden,’” Fleischer observed on Twitter, a wind-up before his actual pitch: “She’s running No Labels. I bet shortly after Super Tuesday.”
Super Tuesday was March 5. Trump carried 14 states and Haley just one. The next day, she ended her presidential campaign. Less than a month later, on April 4, No Labels snuffed out its 2024 presidential ambitions.
Netanyahu will be unseated as Israeli prime minister
Predicted by:
Sigal Samuel
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s hold on power has, despite public outcry about his handling of the war in Gaza — and international outrage over the ongoing humanitarian disaster that, in some organizations’ eyes, constitutes a genocide — remained durable.
It’s December 2024. We’re well more than a year removed from Hamas’ brutal Oct. 7, 2023, attacks. Israel’s war has dragged on and spilled over into Lebanon. Dozens of Israeli hostages remain in Gaza. And Netanyahu remains in power with no apparent serious threat to his prime ministership.
Immigration, border or asylum legislation will pass
Predicted by:
Matthew Yglesias
Center-left writer and social media brawler Matthew Yglesias suggested there was a 70 percent chance that such a bill would make it through Capitol Hill.
It did not. A bipartisan compromise on a border bill, helmed by GOP Sen. James Lankford of Oklahoma, quickly collapsed after Trump made clear he didn’t want Republicans to back the legislation and would prefer that the issue remain unsolved and salient come the November election.
The “13 keys” model will correctly predict the election
Predicted by:
Allan Lichtman
Ok, this one is a bit meta — a prediction about a prediction? — but you’ve made it this far, so stay with me:
For more than 40 years, Allan Lichtman has pointed to his “Keys to the White House” model as the definitive forecasting method for U.S. presidential elections. It’s basically this: Given 13 true-or-false statements about the current presidential election (e.g. “the incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal,” “real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms,” etc.), the incumbent party will win if eight or more of these “keys” are true.
And for 40 years, the model has correctly predicted the outcome of the election. At least, that’s Lichtman’s telling; critics of the model correctly note that in both 2000 and 2016, the model was wrong. In 2000, Lichtman’s model suggested Al Gore would take the White House; George W. Bush instead won, and Lichtman blamed the misfire on a split between the Electoral College and popular vote. His model, he said, would correctly forecast only the popular vote. Then came 2016: Lichtman’s model did the opposite, predicting a Trump victory, even as he lost the popular vote while carrying the Electoral College.
Then came 2024. Lichtman’s “keys” predicted Harris would defeat Trump. She didn’t, and there wasn’t a popular vote-Electoral College split to hide behind.
Lichtman came in for a public flaying, and has received so much scorn that I debated including him on this list, because it feels a bit like a canned hunt.
To Lichtman’s credit, unlike many people on this list, he’s owned up to the fact his prediction was off. But the blow — to his reputation, his ego and his career’s most publicly known work — has clearly weighed on him. Shortly after the election, he was photographed on the steps of a building on American University’s campus, taking a giant drag on a cigar.
That, at least, was relatable: After everything that happened in 2024, who couldn’t use a way to unwind?