Top Counterterrorism Official Warns Of Isis’ Rapid Rise In Africa

The top U.S. counterterrorism official is warning that the Islamic State terror group has set its sights on Africa as its new frontier — and that its activities there are increasingly dangerous for the U.S.

“The ISIS threat in Africa, in our view, is potentially one of the greatest long-term threats to U.S. interests,” Brett Holmgren, the head of the U.S. National Counterterrorism Center, or NCTC, said in an interview. “They've clearly prioritized Africa as a growth opportunity.”

ISIS in Africa is nothing new, but most top administration officials have rarely talked about it in their public addresses on national security. Holmgren’s assessments offer a stark warning to a Washington that is eager to move on from the war on terror era and focus on great power competition against rivals like China and Russia — a priority for both the outgoing Biden administration and incoming Trump administration.

For now, Holmgren says, ISIS’ branches in Africa constitute “mostly local threats” focused on spreading their ideology, exploiting ethnic and social divisions in poorly governed territories to gain more power and overthrowing local governments But he warned that “left unchecked, these groups can and do over time pursue greater ambitions.”

“That could include going after U.S. interests and targets in Africa, or if they bring in foreign fighters, as we've seen in other conflicts, at that point it could become more of an external threat to the United States,” he said.

Islamist militants are sowing chaos across regions of Niger, Burkina Faso and Mali and are setting their sights farther south in coastal West Africa. It includes branches of ISIS and al Qaeda affiliates such as Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin, based in Mali. ISIS also has branches in Nigeria and the Lake Chad basin, Congo, Mozambique and Somalia — some formed out of offshoots and splits from existing al Qaeda-affiliated groups.

Yet some other counterterrorism officials say its a tall order to get enough U.S. resources to focus on the terror threats emanating from the Sahel, given how slammed Washington’s national security leaders are with other global crises — to say nothing of a transition between two administrations with vastly different worldviews and priorities.

“I hate to use this cliché, but it really is a ticking time bomb,” said another senior U.S. counterterrorism official, who was granted anonymity to discuss sensitive security matters. “The CT world gets it, but most of Washington is consumed by Ukraine or China or the Israel crisis. If we let this threat in the Sahel metastasize, we’ll really come to regret it.” Trump's transition team declined to respond to a question on its counterterrorism priorities, saying only as it has in response to other questions about foreign policy that Trump will "restore peace through strength around the world.” Trump on Friday announced Sebastian Gorka, a prominent firebrand conservative media commentator and former White House national security official during his first term, would serve as his senior director for counterterrorism once he takes office.

Holmgren and other Western security officials and analysts have drawn comparisons between how ISIS groups have amassed territory in the Sahel region of Africa with the group’s prominent rise in the Middle East around a decade ago.

“The scale and the threat of ISIS operations in Africa right now remind me, eerily so, of what we saw in Iraq and Syria in 2013 and 2014,” said Charles Lister, a counterrorism expert at the Middle East Institute. “I mean, an army of ISIS is basically marching at will through the Sahel and taking over military bases.”

The Sahel region of Africa has become one of the world’s most volatile places, made more complex by geopolitical power plays from U.S. rivals like Russia. Coups toppled Western-leaning governments in Mali and Niger in recent years. The juntas who took power in those coups booted out U.S. and French troops in a high-profile setback for the West, opting to instead bring in Russian-aligned mercenaries to back their governments.

All told, fatalities linked to militant Islamist groups in Africa have surged by some 60 percent from 2021 to 2024, according to data from the Africa Center for Strategic Studies.

J. Peter Pham, the former U.S. special envoy for the Sahel region in the first Trump administration. criticized the Biden administration’s track record on the issue. "For all of its boasting about 'diplomacy is back,' the Biden administration's record in the Sahel has been pitiful. It never appointed a successor to me as special envoy for the Sahel,” he said.

Asked about the threat from ISIS in Africa, Pham said, “I have no doubt that, in time, they will realize their ambition to strike targets farther afield, including Europe and even America.”

In response, a spokesperson for the National Security Council said: “We are clear to West African partners: the U.S. is committed to regional security and to address the terrorist threats emanating from the Sahel.”

“Since the beginning of the administration, President Biden has led a process to refocus U.S. counterterrorism efforts and promote civilian-led development and good governance approaches to counter insecurity,” the spokesperson added.

After being kicked out of Niger, the United States has moved some of its military assets to other countries, including Chad and the deployment of special forces to coastal African countries like Côte d’Ivoire and Benin to train and advise their forces, the senior U.S. counterterrorism official said.

Lt. Col. Bryon McGarry, a Pentagon spokesperson, declined to comment on specifics, saying adjustments to the U.S. military footprint in the region “requires careful consideration as well as detailed and confidential discussions with prospective host nations.” He added: “There have been no final decisions on adjusting the disposition of DOD forces in West Africa.”

The top general heading U.S. Africa Command, Gen. Michael Langley, visited Gabon, Liberia and Nigeria earlier this month to discuss security threats from these extremist groups with officials from those countries.

The Russian mercenary groups in the Sahel have faced significant setbacks since replacing Western counterterrorism forces, including a group of Wagner mercenaries being routed in a deadly ambush in northern Mali in July.

“In the areas where Wagner has operated most significantly — and I think Mali is a fairly good example, Burkina Faso is another — as it turns out, the terrorist threats are growing,” Holmgren said.

But for the Kremlin, Holmgren said, “it was never about counterterrorism.”

“This was about propping up local governments, but also about pursuing Russia's kind of strategic economic and security interests in the region. Maybe under the guise of counterterrorism.”

A version of this story previously appeared in POLITICO’s National Security Daily newsletter. Like this content? Sign up below!