Trump’s Still Talking About Buying Greenland. Here’s Where That’s Headed.

Of all the priorities Donald Trump has set since returning to power, his fixation on Greenland has ranked among the most mystifying.

The president’s insistence that the U.S. should “own and control” the world’s largest island has unsettled its inhabitants and inspired his allies to imagine it as America's 51st state. It has also raised a host of questions about why and how a possible U.S.-Greenland union could come to be.

POLITICO Magazine recently traveled to Greenland’s capital, Nuuk, and came back with answers.

1

Can Donald Trump actually buy Greenland?

Well, not really. The days have long passed since you could outright purchase a huge chunk of territory from a European power in the new world. What the United States did when it purchased Alaska from Russia in the middle of the 19th century is just not in line with today's international legal norms and standards.

There’s also no clear legal path toward doing so. The people of Greenland have too many rights over their own self-determination for an outright purchase. That doesn't mean that there's nothing Donald Trump can do regarding Greenland.

2

So, what can he actually do?

One of the more plausible ideas that's been gaining some traction in Trump-leaning foreign policy circles is what's called a compact of free association. This is a sort of arrangement that the United States already has with some small island nations in the Pacific. It's short of actually forming a union with Greenland — or making it a 51st state — but involves special privileges for both the U.S. and the other nation involved.

In the case of Greenland, things are a bit more complicated because for the time being, at least, Greenland is an autonomous territory of the kingdom of Denmark. That means that they have a lot of rights to self-determination, but its foreign policy is determined by Denmark.

But even for something like a free association agreement to work, there are a lot of other steps that would have to occur. First, there's a process that's been laid out for Greenland's eventual potential independence from Denmark. There would have to be a referendum in Greenland supporting independence. There's not even total agreement about exactly how that process would work. Then having achieved full independence, Greenland would then have to choose to enter into a free association agreement or some other kind of special arrangement with the United States.

3

Why Greenland? What’s in it for the United States?

Well, it's really big. It's not so far from the U.S. — it's actually 13 miles from Canada at their closest point, and it's strategically located in the Arctic. Arctic ice has been melting. Russia has become more active in that region. China, though it's not an Arctic nation, has also become more active in the Arctic. So, the United States has a military and strategic interest in having a greater presence in that part of the Arctic. There's already an important American air base in the north of the island, and in the south of the island there are deposits of rare earth minerals. As the world seems to be de-globalizing to an extent — and strategic economic blocs are forming — a source of rare earth minerals that is not in China, that's near the United States is potentially very valuable.

President Trump, so far, hasn’t directly articulated those strategic goals, though some in his administration have.

4

What’s in it for Greenland?

The United States is an economic and military power next door. The U.S. is already guaranteeing Greenland security. A closer military relationship would cement that guarantee and trade relationship with the largest, most dynamic economy in the world. Another potential benefit would just be the right of people from Greenland to live and work in the U.S.

That being said, I was on the ground in Greenland in December, and there was not a huge amount of appetite for a big deal with the U.S. anytime soon. One researcher based in Greenland showed me a recent survey where a majority of Greenlanders said they would like to have closer relations with the U.S., but even more Greenlanders said that they'd like to have closer relations with all sorts of other countries, including Iceland and Canada.

So, if President Trump is relying on a popular groundswell in Greenland to get this deal across the finish line, he's still got some convincing to do.

5

Is a deal actually going to happen?

Probably not.

An outright purchase or a free association agreement remains a long way off. But Donald Trump clearly has the attention of the governments of Greenland and Denmark, and so all sorts of potential measures involving greater military or economic integration could easily be on the table. There could still be some form of a deal that would see maybe more trade or better or more strategic bases in Greenland for the United States.