Virginia’s Pivotal Election Season Is Just Getting Started

Democrats’ playbook against Donald Trump is being written in Virginia.

A pair of state legislative special elections in January are giving Democrats an early opportunity to convince voters that the GOP agenda in the second Trump era will harm Americans’ rights and paychecks. It’s just the start of a packed electoral year for the state that will end with a tight governor’s race and a battle for control of the state House.

Democrats in both of the Northern Virginia races are seizing on the president-elect’s plans to shrink the size of the federal government as evidence that the incoming administration will have adverse effects on Loudoun County, a Washington suburb where many residents work for the federal government. They’re also warning about the direction the state would take under complete Republican power, should Democrats lose these special elections and, consequently, control over the Legislature.

“Virginia has an outstanding opportunity to stand up to the new administration,” said Kannan Srinivasan, the Democrat and member of the House of Delegates who is running for state Senate. “Which we’ve seen from the preview is going to be extremely chaotic.”

This is turf that Democrats should easily hold: Kamala Harris won Loudoun County by more than 20 points. Yet Republicans are feeling energized by Trump gaining ground in the region in November, prompting them to invest significant time and resources in these races.

Virginia Republican Party Chair Rich Anderson conceded that these are “tough districts” for Republicans, but the low turnout and unpredictability of special elections gives the GOP an opening.

“We are dead serious about flipping these seats,” Anderson said. “If you don’t try, you have a guaranteed bad outcome. … We are going to put everything on the table.”

Democrats say they’re not taking these seats for granted, given the party’s staggering national losses in November, and because they have razor-thin one-seat majorities in the state House and Senate. Those dynamics are keeping both Republicans and Democrats on offense, and giving early clues to how state legislative matchups will play out in the second Trump era.

These districts are just a quick drive from Washington, meaning that what occurs in the nation’s capital has significant bearing on the local politics in this part of the country. Historically, the outcomes of Virginia elections swing in the opposite direction of the party in power in Washington. In 2017, immediately following Trump’s first victory, Democrats picked up 15 seats in the House of Delegates and came close to flipping the chamber.

“Voters are experiencing a range of emotions after Trump won the election — there’s anger, frustration, disappointment, sadness,” said JJ Singh, the Democrat running for the state House seat. “But when you communicate the stakes of this special election on Jan. 7, the enthusiasm jolts right up.”

Based on the large number of federal workers in Loudoun County, Democrats intend to warn about potential impending damage inflicted on the federal workforce by Trump. His so-called Department of Government Efficiency commission, run by Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy, is tasked with slashing the size of government, in part by reducing the number of federal workers.

Democrats are also emphasizing a trio of pending constitutional amendments dealing with ensuring abortion access, protecting same-sex marriage and restoring voting rights for felons that would get derailed under Republican control of the Legislature. Under Virginia law, constitutional amendments can be placed in front of voters after passage in the Legislature without input from Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin.

Those rights the amendments aim to restore or protect would be in jeopardy under Republicans aligned with Trump, Democrats argue. It’s a preview of how Democrats in state legislatures are positioning themselves as a bulwark against a conservative GOP agenda in Virginia and throughout the U.S.

But even with Loudoun County’s deep blue tint, there is some cause for concern for Democrats. Trump gained more than four points in Loudoun over his 2020 showing. His improved popularity with minority communities — about a quarter of Loudoun County is Asian — is another data point. That shift in the electorate has provided Republicans a glimmer of hope that there’s an opportunity to make inroads in the area.

The Republicans running for the state Legislature, Ram Venkatachalam for the House seat and Tumay Harding for the Senate, are centering their campaigns on school choice, cutting taxes and combating high living costs. Republicans continue to see parental rights as a winning campaign issue, especially in Loudoun County, which has seen several high-profile clashes between parents and the school board.

Venkatachalam and Harding did not return requests for comment.

Virginia Republicans also see these races as a test run for when the entire House is up in November. They may experiment with adopting populist economic messaging that echoes some of Trump’s positions in the presidential campaign, like his proposal for tax-free tips that was credited for boosting his standing among the working class, said a Republican consultant granted anonymity in order to speak to GOP campaign strategy. Youngkin, a potential contender for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination, recently included in his budget proposal a state income tax exemption for tips.

“We’re the party of high turnout now,” the GOP consultant said. “That’s a real fundamental change for us. That’s kind of a new paradigm. If everybody who voted for Trump shows up in these districts we win in a landslide.”

Still, Republicans are up against Democrats who are planning “a significant six-figure spend” in the races, said Virginia Del. Dan Helmer, head of the Democratic campaign caucus.

“We can't afford to be tired,” said Virginia Democratic Party Chair Susan Swecker. “We know a lot’s at stake and these special elections are critical to maintaining our blue wall in the House and Senate.”