What The Future Of Syria Might Actually Look Like

With the collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria, the Middle East is rapidly being reshaped in real time — and Israel isn’t just going to sit around and watch. In the last few days, Israel has launched an intense bombing campaign and even sent troops on the ground into Syria, part of an effort it says is crucial for its own safety against potential terrorist attacks.

I moderated a discussion with Amos Yadlin, one of Israel’s preeminent military officials and strategists, to get a sense of Israel’s goals and what might unfold in Syria and the broader Middle East. Yadlin is a former major general and head of intelligence of the Israel Defense Forces, and was one of the fighter pilots who, in a top-secret mission in 1981, disabled Saddam Hussein’s nuclear capabilities in Iraq.

We spoke via Zoom as part of a WORLD.MINDS gathering on Tuesday, which included former senior officials from the United Nations and U.S. Congress. Several participants asked him the questions published below. The interview was conducted under the Chatham House Rule, so the questioners are not identified by name, but Yadlin agreed to give his responses on the record.

This interview has been edited for length and clarity.

In the last few days and hours, Israel has conducted hundreds of airstrikes across Syria. What is the objective behind these actions?

Israel doesn’t want to take a chance. The threat to Israel is a jihadist neighbor who may use the weapons supplied to Syria by Russia and Iran. So, Israel is attacking the remains of the chemical weapons, the ballistic missiles, the drones, the airplanes and the Syrian Navy.

Airstrikes are one thing. Israel is also invading Syria on the ground.

On the ground there is a buffer zone between Israel and Syria. This zone was created in 1974 by Henry Kissinger when he brokered the disengagement after the Yom Kippur War. The buffer zone provided security for both countries as it was a designated area where no weapons were allowed.

After the 7th of October 2023, Israel decided that there will be no terror organization on its border with the capability to launch an attack within hours. And HTS [Hayat Tahrir al-Sham] which just toppled the Assad regime, demonstrated their ability to emulate Hamas with a surprise attack from a point of zero distance to the border. So, Israel is making sure that this buffer zone will not be taken by terrorists. When Israel will see that there is an accountable regime in Syria, a regime committed to the 1974 agreement, it will withdraw back to the lines where it started from. Any rumors that Israel is moving toward Damascus is nonsense.

When HTS moved to Damascus there was almost no fighting on the ground. Why did Assad’s army not stop the movement of those rebels?

In 2015, when the Assad regime was about to collapse, the opposition force had the upper hand on their way to Damascus. And then, who came to help Assad? The Russians with an air force, against which the rebels didn’t have any air defense. And Hezbollah came to help Assad on the ground. Iranians delivered money, weapons and some Shia militia. What happened this time? All three players were absent. The Russians were in Ukraine. Hezbollah was destroyed by Israel. And the Iranians were deterred by Israel. So the Syrian army was left alone.

But it is an army after all.

Syria is a weak state with a weak economy and therefore a weak army. Syria is basically a factory for drugs in a corrupted dictatorship. The only business that works is sending drugs to Jordan and to the Gulf. The salary of the soldiers is very, very low, between five to ten dollars a month. Assad’s soldiers simply decided not to fight.

How do you assess Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, the leader of HTS?

Jolani seemed to adopt a smart strategy. He understood that ISIS-style conduct will not serve him. He didn’t go to Damascus to kill, burn or rape his people. He performed an excellent information campaign, offering everybody to put down their weapons and to join him. He said, “I’m Syrian, you are Syrian, I’m going against Assad, I’m not going against the country or against you.”

Russia has air and marine bases in Syria, which have an incredible strategic importance for Russia. What will happen to these bases?

The reason that the Russians came to help Assad in 2015 was to go back to the Middle East and have these bases. They saw it as a huge strategic achievement, and they paid by saving Assad. Now the question is, are they going to evacuate them because of a very hostile regime in Syria, or will they try to reach an agreement with the new regime? Since we don’t know yet what kind of regime it is, I think the Russians are waiting to see.

In the last few days, however, we saw the Russians withdrawing. Six naval ships were withdrawing from the Latakia naval base into the Mediterranean. And we saw them taking away the S-300 and the S-400 air defense batteries. The key difference from 2015 is that Russia’s top priority is now focused on Ukraine. My guess is that if the war in Ukraine is not ended, they will evacuate their forces in Syria and send them back to Russia. If the Ukraine war is over, they will try to keep a foothold in Syria and try to reach an agreement with the new regime.

Can there ever be unity in Syria?

Syria is an artificial country that was created by the Brits and the French post-World War I. As a result, Syria is an amazing complex of sects, religious groups and political groups, each with their own sub-groups. And everybody around Syria has stakes in what is happening in Syria. So, the idea that the enemy of your enemy is your friend is not working in Syria. In the Middle East, sometimes you have what we call “frenemy”: You are a friend and an enemy at the same time.

What scenarios do you envision for Syria?

I can see four scenarios. The first one I call the “Libyan scenario.” After the fall of Qaddafi, everybody fought with everybody to have dominance. In the end, Libya was stabilized by two main entities. But only after many, many years of internal war with the support from outside forces like Turkey, Russia and Egypt. The second scenario is some kind of “former Yugoslavia model.” Each one of the sects will have its own autonomy, and they will be smart enough not to fight each other. The third scenario is a jihadist state ranging from an extreme ISIS type to a Taliban in a moderate sense. The fourth scenario is a political Islam kind of country under the model of Turkey and Qatar. A political Islam, not jihadist Islam.

Who will pay to rebuild Syria?

Syria needs $200 billion, maybe $400 billion to rebuild itself into a normal country. Who can pay for it? It’s only Qatar and the Gulf states. The West will only help if Syria is turning into a Jeffersonian democracy, but we are very far from that.

 How will the situation in Syria shape the greater Middle East?

In the last two decades, the forces that shaped the Middle East, the forces that took initiative, were two extremist camps. One camp was the Iranian Axis of Evil: Iran, the Shia in Iraq, Assad in Syria, Hezbollah in Lebanon. The other camp comprised of the radical Islamists — the Al-Nusra Front and the Islamic State.

The moderate, pragmatic forces based in the Gulf states, in Egypt, Jordan and Israel were on the defensive side. Today, the moderate forces have a huge opportunity to shape the Middle East. This is the time to set new rules in the Middle East based on a big bargain, in which Israel will also contribute, for example, by having a different policy toward the Palestinians.