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Tsa Predicts Busiest Thanksgiving Ever — With 3 Million Passengers On The Biggest Day

The Transportation Security Administration is battening down the hatches for what’s likely to be the busiest Thanksgiving travel rush of all time. And it all starts in earnest in one week.

The TSA expects to screen 18.3 million travelers between Tuesday, Nov. 26 and Monday, Dec. 2 — up 6% over last year.

It comes as travel demand has proved unrelenting in 2024, which so far has brought a record-setting summer travel season and each of the 10 busiest days ever at U.S. airports.

By all indications, travelers should expect more of the same as the holiday season kicks off.

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“I see tremendous demand — probably record loads,” American Airlines CEO Robert Isom said at an industry conference last week. “We’re prepared for what’s coming.”

An American Airlines Boeing 787 Dreamliner at Chicago’s O’Hare International Airport (ORD). SEAN CUDAHY/THE POINTS GUY

The busiest days to travel for Thanksgiving

Historically, the Sunday after Thanksgiving has been the busiest day to travel. In fact, it’s often the busiest day of the entire year at U.S. airports, and broke all-time records in both 2019 and 2023.

Expect more of the same in 2024.

The TSA projects the three busiest days of this Thanksgiving rush will be:

Tuesday, Nov. 26
Wednesday, Nov. 27
Sunday, Dec. 1

The crowds should peak on Sunday, Dec. 1, when the TSA expects to see more than three million passengers pass through its checkpoints. For perspective, that’s only happened once, ever — on July 7 of this year, the Sunday after Fourth of July.

That means the Sunday after Thanksgiving could again compete for the busiest air travel day ever in the U.S.

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DAVID PAUL MORRIS/BLOOMBERG VIA GETTY IMAGES

“Working alongside our airport and airline partners and the FAA, we have optimized staffing and will do our best to maintain our wait time standards,” TSA administrator David Pekoske said in a statement Tuesday.

In an interview with TPG this fall, Pekoske said the agency “did a pretty good job collectively” at keeping wait times to 30 minutes or less for passengers in the standard TSA lanes, and 10 minutes or less for TSA PreCheck.

Other days to watch

With remote work allowing travelers more flexibility, expect the Tuesday and Wednesday before Thanksgiving to follow closely behind as the third-busiest day of the travel rush. The agency expects to screen more than 2.8 and 2.9 million passengers on those days, respectively.

Likewise, plan ahead if you’re extending your Thanksgiving getaway a bit and heading to the airport on Monday, Dec. 2. American Airlines says that’ll be one of its busiest days of the holiday period.

The Fort Worth-based carrier expects its single busiest moment of the holiday rush will be around 11:45 a.m. EST on Sunday, Dec. 1 — its “peak of peak,” when it will have 1,035 planes in the air across its entire network.

TSA checkpoint at Los Angeles International Airport (LAX) Terminal 7. SEAN CUDAHY/THE POINTS GUY

Airlines: ‘We’re prepared’

Collectively, U.S. carriers expect to serve more than 31 million passengers over Thanksgiving — up close to 7% from last year and about 10% higher than five years ago, in 2019, according to a trade group for the largest airlines.

“U.S. airlines have been preparing for months to get travelers and cargo safely and efficiently to their destinations,” said Rebecca Spicer, senior vice president of communications at Airlines for America.

While the vast majority of travelers will fly domestically — often to visit family and friends — over the Thanksgiving holiday rush, AAA projects international bookings are surging in 2024, up by nearly a quarter over last year amid lower costs.

As TPG has reported in the past, Thanksgiving is often a great time for an international trip, since few U.S. travelers fly abroad that week, and business travel likewise comes to a pause.

Will airlines run smoothly?

Plenty of travelers likely remain apprehensive when it comes to airline operations, with all too many memories of recent years’ air travel meltdowns.

Here’s the good news: they’ve become fewer and farther between.

So far, 2024 has brought just one major operational meltdown: the July Crowdstrike outage which triggered an operational snafu at Delta Air Lines, fueling thousands of flight cancellations over several days.

Altogether, U.S. carriers have canceled around 1.4% of flights in 2024, according to FlightAware. That’s roughly in line with 2023 levels — but far better than the 2.3% during a comparable period in 2022, when operational challenges routinely fueled chaos at airports.

Cancellation rates are even lower this year at Southwest Airlines (0.9%) which has touted its significant technological and operational investments in the wake of its holiday 2022 meltdown.

Southwest Airlines passengers at San Francisco International Airport (SFO) during the 2023 Thanksgiving rush. LI JIANGUO/XINHUA VIA GETTY IMAGES

Will Spirit Airlines bankruptcy affect holiday travel plans?

There was, of course, one piece of news this week that may have proved disconcerting for travelers: the word that Spirit Airlines has filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection.

Yet, the carrier insists its planes will depart as planned this holiday season, with all operations — and staff — continuing like normal as the court proceedings play out over the coming months.

A legal expert TPG spoke with this week backed up Spirit’s claims.

“Customers, in principle, would not feel any impact from the bankruptcy,” said Steve Walt, legal expert and professor at the University of Virginia School of Law. “Tickets would still be honored, the airline would continue to fly and honor their commitments to their customers.”

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A Spirit Airlines aircraft at Dallas Fort Worth International Airport (DFW). SEAN CUDAHY/THE POINTS GUY

Ultimately, barring the unforeseen, Mother Nature should prove to be the biggest “x-factor” in whether holiday travel runs smoothly.

Gas prices trending down

As always, the vast majority of travelers leaving home for Thanksgiving will be hitting the road.

AAA expects nearly 90% of the 79.9 million total Thanksgiving travelers will be driving for the holiday.

Expect the heaviest traffic on the Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons before the holiday, when getaway travelers meet evening commuters. The same could be true on Monday, Dec. 2, after the holiday.

The better news: Between now and Turkey Day, the national average for a gallon of regular gas could fall below $3 per gallon for the first time since 2021.

EMILY ELCONIN/BLOOMBERG VIA GETTY IMAGES

The national average was around $3.26 per gallon this time last year.

If you are driving for the holiday, be sure to fill up with a credit card that earns bonus points at gas stations — and keep in mind, there are ways to stack your credit card rewards with gas station loyalty program benefits.

Tips for making your holiday travel run smoothly

If you’re headed to the airport for the holidays, there are a few things you can do to make your experience as smooth — and stress-free — as possible.

Book your airport parking in advance

Don’t waste precious pre-flight minutes roaming the airport parking garage only to find filled-up spaces.

Many major U.S. airports allow travelers to reserve a space online ahead of time, and often give those pre-bookers a discount to boot.

Download the MyTSA app

Don’t have TSA PreCheck access? Download the MyTSA app, which allows you to monitor checkpoint wait times, real-time, and can help you estimate your likely wait time.

Figure out what’s included with your ticket, and what’s not

Getting to the airport only to find out your ticket doesn’t include, say, a full-size carry-on — or free seat selection — can be disappointing and expensive if you ultimately choose to purchase either as an “add-on.”

SEAN CUDAHY/THE POINTS GUY

Double-check your ticket, now, to make sure you know what you signed up.

Keep in mind, several airlines — from JetBlue to budget carriers — relaxed some of their more restrictive policies in 2024, but certain no-frills tickets are still, well, no-frills.

Plus, numerous U.S. carriers hiked checked bag fees in 2024.

Know your rights

Bookmark the TSA’s FlightRights dashboard, which lays out what airlines have guaranteed when your flight is delayed or canceled and it’s the airline’s responsibility.

Plus, remember your right to a refund: If your flight is canceled or significantly delayed and you ultimately choose not to travel — and don’t accept re-booking — you’re entitled to a refund, no matter the reason for the disruption.

And, new last month, the airlines must now issue that refund promptly, and automatically.

Learn your way around your airline’s app

Make sure you’ve downloaded your airline’s app, and familiarized yourself with it.

Oftentimes, when there’s a delay or cancellation, your carrier can offer you rebooking options right on the mobile app, with just a few taps of your finger.

Remember: 3-1-1 applies to Thanksgiving food, too

To keep those TSA lines smoothly, brush up on the agency’s liquids rules for carry-on belongings.

Cooking and bringing some Thanksgiving table staples with you?

“If you can spill it, spray it, spread it, pump it, or pour it,” the TSA says, “…it is a liquid, aerosol or gel and must be packed in your checked bag if it exceeds the 3.4-ounce limit.”

PHOTO BY PEGGY CORMARY/THE WASHINGTON POST VIA GETTY IMAGES; FOOD STYLING BY CAROLYN ROBB/WASHINGTON POST VIA GETTY IMAGES

Solid foods — like cakes and baked goods — are clear for carry-on.

Book that Christmas and New Year’s travel!

Finally, if you haven’t booked Christmas and New Year’s flights yet, don’t delay! According to Google Flights, booking year-end holiday season trips by late October would have been ideal. But prices are likely to rise significantly in the coming weeks.

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